Gartner: global EV fleet to reach 116 million by end-2026 — 30% growth despite challenges

By the end of 2026, 116 million electric vehicles may be on roads worldwide, a 30% increase over this year’s 89.6 million — according to a report by Gartner, published in early December. By the end of 2026, on roads worldwide^[1] 116 million electric vehicles may be on roads worldwide^[2] which represents a 30% increase^[3] compared with this year’s 89.6 million^[4] according to the latest report from US technology market research firm Gartner^[5] published in early December^[6]. This growth comes despite several countries — including the United States — cutting subsidies and imposing tariffs on car imports; the market is adapting quickly but unevenly. “Europe led the growth, rising 36% year on year in November” — says Charles Lester of Rho Motion, which well illustrates the divergence between regions.

Global EV fleet forecast for 2026

Analyst Jonathan Davenport at Gartner forecasts that plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will increase 32% to 39.8 million by 2026, as some buyers view the petrol engine as a backup. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to grow from 59.5 million this year to 76.3 million in 2026. By the end of 2026, on roads worldwide 116 million electric vehicles may be on roads worldwide which represents a 30% increase compared with this year’s 89.6 million according to the latest report from US technology market research firm Gartner published in early December. This shifts demand dynamics: PHEVs add operational flexibility, so consumers choose them.

Plug-in hybrids versus battery EVs

However, Gartner revised its forecast for the share of fully electric cars: the original projected 77% for 2026 was lowered to 63%. The revision reflects the rising popularity of plug-in hybrids, which buyers select for greater versatility. Gartner’s analysis indicates revised from 77 percent to 63 percent^[7]. This correction shows that slower BEV uptake does not halt the trend, only diversifies it.

China’s dominance and local markets

Regionally, the forecast indicates that 61% of the global EV fleet in 2026 will be in China — demand there even rose compared with earlier forecasts: expected deliveries for 2026 were raised from 13.4 million to 16.5 million, driven by strong competition among domestic manufacturers and lower prices. By the end of 2026, on roads worldwide revised from 77 percent to 63 percent Gartner’s analysis indicates according to the latest report from US technology market research firm Gartner. That scale means decisions by manufacturers in China will have a material impact on global supply and prices.

At the level of individual countries there are local records. Węgry/Hungary report that 2025 will be a record year: the number of purely electric vehicles may approach 100,000. Hungary is also having a record year in 2025^[8] the number of purely electric vehicles this year may approach 100,000^[9] The government extended support programmes: corporate schemes were extended to the end of February 2026, with grants of up to 4 million forints per vehicle and a 40 billion forint pool. The corporate electric car support programme was extended until the end of February 2026^[10] with up to 4 million forints per vehicle^[11] available from a 40 billion forint fund^[12]. This is an example of how local policies can offset the withdrawal of incentives in other countries.

Europe accelerates thanks to subsidies

Cumulative global EV sales to November 2025 reached 18.5 million units, a 21% year-on-year increase, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. November alone brought 2.0 million vehicles sold, which lifts the annual forecast to around 22 million units according to Bloomberg NEF. Within that total Europe stands out: year-to-date sales in the region reached 3.8 million units — +33% y/y, and in November Europe grew 36% y/y, driven by new government programmes in France and Italy. Europe led global growth with 36% year-on-year growth in November^[13] This growth comes despite clear regional disparities^[14] Year-to-date sales in Europe reached 3.8 million units^[15] driven by renewed government support in France and Italy^[16].

BYD, batteries and global expansion

Italy introduced at the end of October a subsidy programme offering up to €20,000 for companies and €11,000 for private buyers, with a budget of €597.3m. As a result of the bonus the country recorded a record November sales close to 25,000 EVs. France extended its ecological bonus to 2026, with grants up to €5,700 for low-income households, and the United Kingdom expanded the list of eligible models. Italy launched a new subsidy programme at the end of October^[17] France extended its ecological bonus to 2026^[18] Europe led global growth with 36% year-on-year growth in November. These fiscal interventions explain why Europe is accelerating while North America slows.

As Charles Lester of Rho Motion points out, “Europe led the growth, rising 36% year on year in November, driven by new incentives and wider model availability” — a quote that underscores the importance of policy and product offering over a short period. Europe led global growth with 36% year-on-year growth in November

North America weakens; policy eases pressure

China remains the largest market: 11.6 million EVs sold year-to-date, up 19% y/y, though monthly growth slowed to 3% in November, indicating a maturing domestic market. At the same time BYD set an export record in November, shipping 131,935 units abroad — +326% y/y. Chinese manufacturers sold about 200,000 cars in Europe in 2025, more than four times as many as a year earlier. The growing expansion goes hand in hand with dominance in battery production: Chinese firms control about 69% of the EV battery market. China maintained its position as the world’s largest electric vehicle market^[19] BYD set an export record in November^[20] Chinese manufacturers control about 69% of the global EV battery market^[21] driven by renewed government support in France and Italy.

What this means for buyers and manufacturers

North America experienced a 1% y/y decline — 1.7 million units to November — after the US federal tax credit of $7,500 expired on 30 September 2025. This is a direct effect of the tax decision, which suppresses short-term demand. North America recorded a 1% year-on-year decline^[22] after the US federal electric vehicle tax credit of $7,500 expired^[23]. In addition, in early December President Trump rolled back Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards to about 34.5 mpg by 2031, compared with the previous target of about 50.4 mpg; easing those requirements reduces pressure on manufacturers to accelerate electrification. President Trump rolled back Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards^[24] to about 34.5 mpg by 2031^[25] compared with the prior target of about 50.4 mpg^[26].

Despite these regional differences, the global trajectory of EV adoption remains upward thanks to more models, lower battery costs and consistent policy support in key markets outside the US. For buyers the signal is clear: model choice and availability of subsidies will continue to decide the pace of fleet turnover; for manufacturers — that flexibility in the range (PHEV + BEV) and concentration of supply chains, especially batteries, will determine success in the coming years. Will the Polish market use subsidy systems and falling battery prices to accelerate the transition? That question is left to the reader.