The eastern part of the Horn of Africa is experiencing one of the driest October-December rainy seasons in recorded history. According to an alert issued by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) on Monday, about 20-25 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya currently require[1] humanitarian food assistance. This crisis stems from La Niña conditions and a historic negative Indian Ocean Dipole, directly impacting 50-55 percent of those in need.
Scale of the Crisis and Its Causes
Seasonal rainfall totals across most of the region are expected to be less than 50 percent of average, with some areas receiving below 30 percent of typical rainfall. Somalia declared a national drought emergency on November 10[15], following an almost complete failure of the Deyr rains, which usually supply over 40 percent of the annual grain production. As a result of the crisis, more than 185,000 people have been displaced within Somalia, and at least 55,000 Somalis have fled to Ethiopia.
Food Security Status and Displacement
Many regions of Somalia are classified as being in an emergency situation[4] under IPC Phase 4, while widespread crisis conditions (IPC Phase 3) prevail throughout the Horn of Africa. It is predicted that between 4.4 and 4.6 million people in Somalia[7], nearly one-quarter of the population, will face acute food insecurity by December. Global acute malnutrition rates have already exceeded 25 percent[2] in some internally displaced person settlements and agro-pastoral areas, resembling conditions prior to the 2011 famine.
Impact of Drought on Agriculture and Livestock
The drought has emerged less than three years after the historic 2020-2023 drought, which already devastated the region. Livestock are dying at alarming rates, with losses reaching up to 60 percent of herds[9] in some locations. Availability of pasture and water has dropped to critically low levels, while vegetation conditions have fallen below normal values[10] in the hardest-hit areas.
Humanitarian Aid Constraints and Future Outlook
The humanitarian response faces serious funding limitations. The Somali Humanitarian and Response Needs Plan for 2025, valued at $1.4 billion, has received only 23.7 percent of the required funds, approximately $370 million. Emergency food assistance in Somalia dropped from 1.1 million recipients in August to 350,000 in November[13] due to funding cuts. The UN Central Emergency Response Fund allocated $10 million[11] for drought response activities aimed at reaching over 603,000 people, but urgently larger support is needed. FEWS NET warns that the rainy season from March to May 2026 will be critical for stabilizing or worsening food security, with below-average rainfall potentially causing famine conditions (IPC Phase 5).