Breakthrough in the Red Sea and Opening of S6 Road – Key Transport and Logistics Events at the End of 2025

Return of Giants on the Red Sea and Impact on the Freight Market

On December 23, 2025, the container ship CMA CGM Jacques Saade, with a capacity of 23,000 TEU, passed through the Suez Canal, marking return of the French shipping company to this strategic route^[1] after a two-year break caused by Houthi attacks. This decision is a significant sign of reversing the maritime crisis^[2], which forced ships to take long detours around Africa, extending travel time by about two weeks^[3]. The Danish carrier Maersk also conducted a test transit with the vessel Maersk Sebarok, although it remains cautious compared to CMA CGM’s aggressive strategy. Returning to the Suez Canal could release an additional 2 million TEU capacity to the market, which, with a record order book of 11.6 million TEU for 2026, threatens a sharp freight rate drop and price wars in the first half of the year. Furthermore, the risk of incidents remains high, putting pressure on insurers and potentially affecting the stability of supply chains between Asia and Europe.

New S6 Expressway Improves Transport in Pomerania

In Poland, on December 22, 2025, a key 46-kilometer section of the S6 expressway^[4] between Koszalin and Słupsk was opened. This investment completes a stretch of over 200 kilometers of expressway from Goleniów (S3) to Słupsk^[5], which is crucial for transport in Pomerania and servicing seaports. The new route diverts truck transit from national road no. 6, shortening delivery times along the Szczecin–Gdańsk axis and increasing the investment appeal of areas around Koszalin and Słupsk, especially for logistics warehouses. The General Directorate for National Roads and Motorways and construction consortia carried out the investment. The communication improvement will also enhance traffic safety^[6], particularly during winter and holiday periods.

Cyberattacks Hit French and Polish Logistics

In the last week of December, the logistics sector faced serious cyberattacks. French postal service La Poste was victim to a DDoS attack^[7], paralyzing banking services and Colissimo courier shipment tracking. At the same time, Mondial Relay, owned by the Polish group In. Post, reported a customer data leak that included names, email addresses, and shipment tracking numbers. The attacks occurred on December 22-23, a critical peak parcel period. Consequences may be severe — exposing the companies to lawsuits and GDPR fines, and risking loss of trust from e-commerce customers in France and Belgium. In 2026, the TSL sector in Poland will need to increase cybersecurity spending to prevent similar incidents.

Brent Oil Prices Drop Despite Geopolitical Tensions

Unexpectedly, Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.5% in the post-holiday week^[9], reaching about $60.64 per barrel, marking the worst annual result in five years. Despite geopolitical tensions, investors focus on forecasts by the International Energy Agency indicating a massive oversupply of crude in 2026, estimated at 3.8 million barrels per day. Competition between OPEC+ and producers from the US and the Americas influences decisions on possible production cuts that might be necessary to stabilize prices. For carriers, this means lower fuel costs in the first quarter of 2026 and reduced inflationary pressure in road transport.

New SENT Regulations and Their Consequences for Carriers

Starting January 1, 2026, an obligation to report international transports^[10] in the SENT system enters into force for carriers from the European Union, the European Free Trade Association, and Switzerland. This revolutionary change aims to tighten market control but at the same time introduces new bureaucratic barriers. Foreign carriers must register in the Electronic Tax and Customs Services Platform^[11], and failure to register risks heavy fines and vehicle detentions. The Ministry of Finance and the National Revenue Administration are preparing^[12] for chaotic first weeks of January, which may bring border congestion and reduced supply of trucks on routes to and from Poland.

Freight Rates Rise Ahead of Chinese New Year

In the last week of December, on the Shanghai–Rotterdam route, rates rose 8%, reaching $2584 per FEU^[13], while on the transpacific route (Shanghai–USA), the increase reached 18-19%^[14]. The cause was the pre-holiday order peak and concerns about the upcoming Chinese New Year, falling on February 17, 2026, as well as potential new customs duties in the USA. Carriers are implementing a General Rate Increase (GRI), leading to short-term higher costs of import from Asia. However, after February, a downward correction is expected due to surplus market capacity.

Air Disruptions and Changes in PKP Timetable

In Europe, there is an ongoing wave of ground staff strikes at airports from December 19 to 29^[15]. Strikes by Azul Handling for Ryanair last until December 31^[16] across 12 airports. Luton Airport, served by Easy. Jet, experienced protests from December 19-22 and 26-29, and in Spain, December strikes caused disruptions. These disturbances affect holiday returns and belly cargo shipments. In response, alternative transport modes, such as Road Feeder Service (RFS), gain importance. In Poland, PKP Intercity introduced a new timetable, increasing the number of daily trains to 555^[18], which means an increase of 50 connections year-on-year. However, track renovations in Podkarpacie cause difficulties, especially isolating Krosno from regional connections, forcing the use of replacement transport.

Oversupply Forecast and Challenges for the Maritime Industry in 2026

Analysts from Xeneta and Drewry warn of serious challenges^[19] for the maritime sector in 2026. The return to the Suez Canal combined with the record order book of vessels with a capacity of 11.6 million TEU^[13] may lead to an oversupply of transport capacity. At the same time, demand for TEU-miles is forecasted to drop by 6% with the reopening of the Suez route. This may trigger a “market slaughter” resulting in bankruptcies of smaller carriers and another wave of consolidation. For importers, however, this means cheaper freight and potential price benefits. The rising cost of CO2 emissions under the full implementation of the EU ETS from January 2026 will further impact import prices and might shift some volumes to ports outside the European Union.