Freight Signals at the Start of 2026: Cheap Sea Freight, Suez Returns, Record Investments in Poland

On key ocean routes in the first week of February rates fell to levels close to carriers’ breakeven points^[1]. On the Asia–West Coast USA route, rates were 1,450–1,800 USD/FEU, with the Freightos Baltic Index dropping by 10% to 2,418 USD/FEU^[2]. The Asia–East Coast USA route was valued at about 3,850 USD/FEU (a 5% week-on-week decrease), while Asia–Northern Europe stood at around 2,600 USD/FEU compared to 3,000 USD in January. The Asia–Mediterranean route held steady near 3,800 USD/FEU. Meanwhile, air freight from China to the USA rose to 6.74 USD/kg (+8%), while the China–Europe route fell to 3.44 USD/kg (−4%). The largest carriers – Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and ONE – withdrew planned rate increases, and C. H. Robinson signals changes in service configurations^[3] impacting space availability and punctuality. The market is expected to remain almost “dead” until the end of February due to Asian factory shutdowns, with another clear pricing signal anticipated at March, creating a negotiation window for Polish importers before the contract season.

Sea Rates and the Return Through Suez

At the same time, cautious container ship traffic is resuming through the Suez Canal after a two-year break caused by attacks in the Red Sea area. Maersk sent its first ship through this waterway in December 2025^[5], though it has not yet fully restored its network. Since January 2026, CMA CGM has been operating regular India–Mediterranean connections^[6] via Suez and plans full return in the second quarter of 2026, while ONE launched a new service between the Red Sea and China on January 15. Shortening the route from rounding the Cape of Good Hope to passing through the Suez Canal reduces transit time from Shanghai to Rotterdam from 42–45 days to about 30 days. According to authorities, full normalization could free up about 2 million TEU of capacity and even 6% of global container supply, which, amidst existing oversupply, risks further rate declines and possible congestion at European ports during early ship arrivals.

USA–India: Tariff Reset and Market Impact

On the trade policy front, a breakthrough is the agreement between the USA and India, announced in a joint White House statement on February 6 and sanctioned by President Donald Trump under Executive Order 14257^[8]. From February 7, tariffs on many Indian goods entering the USA fell from punitive 50% to 18%^[9], and zero tariffs were applied to some products, including generic medicines, gemstones, and selected aircraft parts. The Indian government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, represented by Trade Minister Piyush Goyal, committed to purchasing American energy, aircraft, technology, and coking coal valued at 500 billion USD over five years. Formal signing of the agreement is planned for March 2026^[12]. The deal accelerates shifting global supply chains from China to India in the textile, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors, potentially altering Polish exporters’ competitive position in the American market.

Rail in the USA: Merger Block and Record Contract

In the USA, the major development in the rail market remains the blocking of the approximately 85 billion USD merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, which aimed to create the first transcontinental freight railroad with a network exceeding 50,000 miles of track across 43 states. The Surface Transportation Board rejected the January 2026 application as incomplete^[13] due to missing data on competition consequences. The deal, valuing Norfolk Southern shares at 320 USD and assuming annual synergies of 2.75 billion USD, may close after 2027 if companies agree to additional concessions, including track access rights. Concurrently, Union Pacific under Jim Vena signed a contract with Wabtec, managed by Rafael Santana, worth 1.2 billion USD to modernize 1,700 AC4400 locomotives starting in 2027, representing the largest investment of its kind in the industry’s history^[16].

Winter, Strikes, and Disruptions in Europe

Europe is battling a winter wave of disruptions. Storage yards from Rotterdam to Gdańsk approach maximum capacity – at Rotterdam, terminal MVII operates at the limit of its capacity^[19], while in China’s Ningbo (MSICT), yard utilization reaches 90%^[21] with delays above the port average. In Gdańsk, DCT shortened the operational window from 7 to 5 days before ship arrivals, and freezing equipment, limited truck slots, and delayed trains further reduce throughput. In Hamburg, slower operations result from high storage density and lowered crane productivity. Worldwide port wait times reach up to 5.44 days in Surabaya and 5.08 days in Mombasa, while in Montreal, average rail dwell time hits 7 days. Maersk describes the situation as industry-wide disruption. Meanwhile, in Italy, amid the Winter Olympics Milano–Cortina 2026 starting February 6, 26 transport strikes have been announced^[23], including a 24-hour strike of ports and highway workers on February 6, an ITA Airways strike on February 16 threatening disruptions to 314 flights and up to 27,000 passengers, a nationwide public transport protest on February 25, and a strike of Ferrovie dello Stato train drivers on February 27-28. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini promises tougher penalties for strike law violations, and Olympic logistics relying on the Trenitalia network face a major test.

Poland Accelerates Investments and Regulations

Amid global turmoil, Poland is entering a year of record spending on transport infrastructure^[37]. According to Infrastructure Minister Dariusz Klimczak, total sector spending in 2026 will reach around 100 billion PLN^[31], with one third funded by the state budget and the remainder covered by the National Road Fund and National Recovery Plan funds. PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe, with Vice President Marcin Mochocki, plans turnover of 18–19 billion PLN. The Central Communication Port, led by Filip Czernicki, intends to announce tenders worth about 40 billion PLN (9 billion EUR) in 2026, including 7 billion PLN in Q1, 20 billion in Q2, 3 billion in Q3, and 10 billion in Q4. The CPK passenger terminal project designed by Foster + Partners foresees an area of 450,000 m² and capacity of 34 million passengers annually^[34] in its first phase, with foundation works starting in 2026 and opening in 2032. Key rail projects include the Warsaw–Łódź high-speed line with a 4.6 km tunnel under Łódź (2026–2029), a 9-kilometer tunnel under Warsaw’s Odolany district by 2032, and the 480 km “Y” line estimated at 80 billion PLN. Road 100 km S10 route Szczecin–Wałcz and the western Szczecin bypass with a 5-kilometer tunnel under the Odra River by 2032, as well as the northern reconstruction of railway line 201 Bydgoszcz–Tricity into a double-track electrified route. The entire transport infrastructure sector may grow by 5.2% in 2026^[36], though realizing these plans requires meeting the August deadline for using EU Recovery and Resilience Facility funds to avoid losing part of the railway funds.

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