Rates Down, Volumes Up. Polish and European Real Estate Markets Accelerate

The Monetary Policy Council at its meeting on February 3–4, 2026 kept the reference rate at 4.00%^[3], following a series of reductions totaling 175 basis points in 2025. The lombard rate stands at 4.50%, and the deposit rate at 3.50%. CPI inflation in December 2025 fell to 2.4% year-on-year^[1], below the National Bank of Poland’s target of 2.5%. ING Economics economists predict further easing of monetary policy to 3.25% before the end of 2026, with a possible first cut as early as March, while NBP president Adam Glapiński signals a target around 3.50%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) on February 5, 2026 left the deposit rate at 2.00%^[5] and the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, with inflation in the eurozone at 1.7% year-on-year in January, below the 2.0% target.

Monetary Policy and Cost of Capital

Stable and relatively low financing costs in euros (around 3.6% overall for real estate bonds) are fueling a recovery in the commercial real estate market in Europe^[6]. According to CBRE data commercial real estate transaction volumes in 2025 rose^[10] by 13% year-on-year to about 241 billion euros, with just the fourth quarter reaching 86 billion euros, the best result since Q1 2022. ING Research forecasts further volume growth of about 14% to 275 billion euros in 2026, compared to an average of 315 2016–2022. The residential segment now accounts for 22% of the market (around 53 billion euros), offices for 19%, and the healthcare sector posted a record quarter with volume of 15.8 billion euros in Q4. Capitalization rates for top office buildings compressed on average by 11 basis points in 2025, and by 6 logistics and retail, with an average valuation increase of 1.3% in the first half of the year. In M&A activity, players like Gecina, Klepierre, CTP, Segro, and Aroundtown are active, with major deals including the merger of Aedifica and Cofinimmo, a 1 billion pound agreement between Tritax Big Box and Blackstone, the acquisition of Primary Health Properties and Assura for 1.8 billion pounds, and British Land’s purchase of Life Science REIT for about 150 million pounds.

Revival in the European CRE Market

In Poland investment volume in the commercial real estate market in 2025 amounted to^[11] approximately 4.5 billion euros, marking a 13% year-on-year decrease, though over 40% of transactions were finalized in Q4 alone. A key structural change is the record share of domestic capital, rising from 9% in 2024 to 20% in 2025, reaching 30% in the office segment. Offices remain the largest sector with volumes around 1.74 billion euros, warehouses reached 1.33 billion euros, and retail properties about 900 million euros. The largest single transaction was a sale and leaseback deal^[12] between the US company Realty Income and EKO-OKNA, valued at 253.5 million euros, covering 264,000 square meters in two plants in Silesia. A total of 151 investment transactions were closed. Active investors include Mennica Polska (with a 50% stake in the Mennica Legacy Tower complex), the Trigea Real Estate Fund (Wola Center office building), Stena Real Estate (High5ive complex in Krakow), UNIQA Real Estate (Wronia 31), and Syrena Real Estate (Zaułek Piękna). Cushman & Wakefield analysis suggests 2026 could be a turning point, especially with the return of core funds, and Central and Eastern Europe is rising into the top three key investment destinations.

Domestic Capital Strengthens Polish CRE

The office market in Poland entered a clear tightening phase^[17]. According to JLL office demand in 2025 hit a historic record of 772 thousand square meters, an 8% year-on-year increase. In Warsaw, the vacancy rate fell to 9.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points from the previous year, with total stock at 6.28 million square meters. Downtown Warsaw vacancy is only 6.1%, while outside the center it is 13.3%. Regional cities have an average vacancy of 16.9%, with Katowice and Wrocław reaching 21.6% and 20%, respectively. New supply outside Warsaw in 2025 was only 20.5 thousand square meters, with about 221 thousand square meters under construction and a forecasted 95 of new space in 2026. The most active tenants are companies from the IT sector (133 thousand square meters), professional services (125 thousand), and manufacturing (120 thousand), with one major deal being Shell’s lease extension of 23 thousand square meters in Krakow. The shortage of modern Class A space contributes to rising prime rents, especially in Krakow and Poznan, and forces the modernization or conversion of older Class B and C buildings. In the warehouse market, Poland saw new supply of around 1.8 million square meters in 2025, the lowest since 2016, with stock exceeding 37 million square meters. Q4 added 137.7 thousand square meters, and vacancy fell to 7.4%, down 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Gross demand hit about 6 million square meters, net around 3 million, with renegotiations accounting for 53–60%. Approximately 1.79 million square meters remain under construction. Rents in suburban parks range from 3.5–5.5 euros per square meter per month, and CBRE forecasts prime rent growth in European logistics of about 1.8%** for 2026.

Offices, Warehouses, and PRS in Poland

The institutional rental housing market in Poland is entering a new phase marked by a record deal in the PRS segment. signed a preliminary agreement for the sale of 5,322 units^[27] from the Resi4. Rent portfolio to Vantage Development, controlled by TAG Immobilien, for 2.405 billion zlotys (approximately 565 million euros). The closing date has been postponed to May 15, 2026. The projected NOI return on this investment stands at about 6.3% in 2026, significantly above the typical 3–4.5% range for PRS in Western Europe. After completion, Vantage Development will hold roughly 8,700 units and aims to increase its portfolio to 10,000 by 2029, while Echo Investment will retain around 4,500 Resi4. Rent units. Interest in the PRS sector is also maintained by players such as AFI Home, NREP (brand Lett), Matexi, and Eiffage. Meanwhile, the market awaits the enactment of the Act on Companies Investing in Property Rental (SINN), i.e. Polish REITs, which the Ministry of Finance has prioritized for 2025–2028, proposing a minimum capital of 100 million zlotys, a CIT tax rate of 10%, and a requirement to distribute at least 90% of profits as dividends; however, the bill has not yet been submitted to parliament.

Housing Prices and Global Appetite for Real Estate

In the housing market, prices of new apartments are clearly rising in major cities. the average price per square meter of a new apartment in Warsaw surpassed 19,100 zlotys^[32], marking growth of 4% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year. In Krakow, the average price is 16,900 zlotys per square meter, in the Tri-City area 17,700, in Wrocław 15,200 (stable for four months), in Poznan 13,900, in Łódź 11,500, and in Katowice 11,400 zlotys. area, the share of apartments priced above 20,000 per square meter rose from 24% to 33% in a year, showing ongoing market polarization. In January, developers sold around 5,000 apartments, about 20% more than the average in Q4 2025, alongside a rise in new secondary market listings to around 28,000 (+22% month-on-month) with stable prices. NBP rate cuts in upcoming quarters should improve households’ creditworthiness and further boost demand. Globally, appetite for commercial real estate is confirmed by the Knight Frank Active Capital Survey 2026, according to which 119 major institutional investors managing assets worth 1.4 trillion dollars plan to allocate 144 billion dollars to commercial real estate. 87% intend to increase exposure, 62% aim to be net buyers, and only 12% net sellers. The most sought-after sectors are offices (69%), residential (65%), and industrial/logistics (63%), with planned joint ventures valued at about 94 billion dollars and core capital inflows around 37 billion dollars. Interest in Europe, including higher-yield markets such as Poland and Central and Eastern Europe, combined with eased monetary policy, could significantly accelerate capital inflows in 2026.

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