Global Signals for Real Estate: Stable Eurozone Rates, US CRE Pressure, Growing Role of Energy

In February and early March 2026, The European Central Bank kept the main refinancing operations rate^[1] at 2.15%, the deposit rate at 2.0%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4%. The composite cost of new debt for home purchases in the eurozone was 3.35% in January, while mortgage loans with a variable rate dropped to 3.51%. The stabilization of the cost of money slows the growth of capital costs for office, warehouse, and PRS projects financed in euros, also in Poland, and facilitates the refinancing of loan portfolios and issuance of real estate-backed bonds.

Rates in the Eurozone and Pressure on US Loans

In the US commercial real estate market, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that in 2026 about $875 billion of loans will mature^[7] on a total exposure of $5 trillion, roughly 17% of the portfolio. This is less than the $957 billion maturing in 2025, but still implies strong pressure on refinancing, restructurings, and asset sales, especially for older offices and weaker locations. New financings feature lower LTV ratios and tighter covenants, raising the cost of capital also for sponsors from Poland active globally and boosting the role of mezzanine financing and preferred equity structures.

Energy, Logistics, and Market Maturity in Poland

At the same time, analyses by JLL distributed among others by the Mortgage Bankers Association and Altus Group studies show that availability of connection capacity and supply security^[9] of energy are becoming key valuation factors, particularly in the data center segment. Forecasts predict a doubling of power demand for data centers by 2030, and in the week ending March 4, 2026, most of the construction activity growth in many US districts involved data centers and energy infrastructure. This means a growing premium for locations with certain network access, long-term PPA agreements, and fast connection capabilities – also in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe.

PRS Facing Increasing Regulatory Pressure

Poland’s strong position as a logistics market is confirmed^[4] by the latest AXI IMMO report. At the end of 2025, industrial and logistics space inventory reached 36.58 million sqm (+6% year-over-year), with a new supply of 1.68 million sqm (-35% year-over-year, the lowest since 2016). Gross demand amounted to 6.64 million sqm (+14%) with a record share of renegotiations – 3.46 million sqm, representing 52% of the total volume. Construction ongoing was 1.79 million sqm (+2% year-over-year), of which 38.6% were speculative projects, and the greatest developer activity concentrated in the Mazowieckie, Pomorskie, and Śląskie voivodeships. These data indicate market maturity, limited speculative supply, and growing importance of quality and tenant relationships.

Residential and Office Markets Normalizing

Regulatory and economic tensions intensify in the institutional residential rental segment. The British Association for Rental Living warns that with rising construction costs, higher rates, and tighter regulations, the profitability of Build-to-Rent projects declines, leading to slowdowns, changes, or cancellations of investments. Knight Frank estimates that over the last decade investors placed nearly £40 billion in UK BtR, of which about £30 billion is in professionally managed multifamily assets, and in 2025 alone over 146,000 BtR homes were completed. Concurrently, in the US Senators Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren proposed the^[5] “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act,” aiming among other things to limit institutional investor participation in the single-family and BTR segments. An industry coalition including the National Multifamily Housing Council and National Housing Conference warns that Section 901 as currently written could effectively eliminate federally financed new BTR developments, despite about 47,000 units being delivered in the US in 2025.

In the US residential market, analyses by Nadlan Capital Group, Redfin, and the National Association of Realtors indicate entry into a phase of “cool recovery.” 30-year mortgage offers declined at the start^[3] of March 2026 to around 5.5–6%, after previous peaks above 7%. Home listings correspond to about 5.1 months of supply; new listings numbered 80,595 (down 2.8% year-over-year), and the median exposure time reached 67 days, the longest in nearly seven years. The housing affordability index improved to its best level since March 2022, although existing home sales in January 2026 fell 8.4% year-over-year and pending sales dropped 0.8% month-over-month. In offices, Colliers, Allwork.space, and CCIM Institute reports show continued bifurcation: over 100 million sqft of outdated space was removed from the market in 2025, the national vacancy rate declined to 18.2%, and net demand turned positive in more markets, with clearly better results for modern Class A buildings than for older assets in need of conversion or major upgrades.

Sources

Related posts: