Middle East Tensions, Rising Fuel Costs, and Strikes Disrupt Transport and Logistics in Europe

In the Hormuz Strait, a series of attacks occurred^[1] on commercial vessels, which prompted many shipowners to effectively close this route^[2] and reroute ocean services around the Cape of Good Hope. Marine insurers withdrew war coverage for the Persian Gulf^[3], while part of the transit through the strait and cargo flights from the main airports of the United Arab Emirates were suspended. The escalating USA–Israel–Iran conflict affected about 20% of global oil supplies normally passing through Hormuz, pushing Brent crude prices temporarily close to $120 per barrel and forcing an unprecedented decision by the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, including **172 the US SPR. VLSFO bunker fuel prices in Singapore doubled from February 27 to March 10 to over $1000 per ton.

Conflict in the Hormuz Strait and Cost Impacts

The fuel cost surge quickly transferred to land logistics^[4]. A. P. Moller – Maersk introduced a temporary Intermodal Fuel Fee in Poland^[5] for road and rail transport, applicable in pricing calculations from March 16 to 30, 2026. The surcharge amounts to 6% for road freight rates^[6] and 4% for rail and RCO shipments, intended to compensate for the unprecedented rise in energy costs following Hormuz’s closure. For Polish shippers and consignees, this means higher port access and container delivery costs to Gdańsk, Gdynia, and foreign ports, ultimately putting pressure on renegotiating contracts and fuel clauses also with other intermodal operators.

Europe Pays More for Intermodal and Faces Strikes

Freight rates on the main Asia–Europe corridor are rising rapidly^[7] and port congestion is growing. At Northern European ports, delays total 432,000 TEU^[8] of container backlog (+33% month-on-month), while in North Asia it is 887,000 TEU (–26% m/m). The WCI index for Shanghai–Rotterdam rose by 19% in a week^[9] to $2443 per FEU, and the Shanghai–Genoa route reached $2844 per FEU, with further hikes to $3000–4000 per FEU expected in late March. Operators estimate capacity utilization on the Northern Europe/Med – US East Coast route at 92%, with port reloading delays of 1–4 days. For Polish exporters and importers using Northern European ports, this means container rollovers, longer transit times, and frequent changes of discharge ports.

Disruptions in shipping and air transport increase the attractiveness of Eurasian land corridors^[10]. In January–February 2026, rail container shipments China–Europe–China rose by 25% year-on-year^[11], and the Central Eurasian Corridor recorded a growth of +31%. Operators also report growing interest in China–Europe road routes^[12], with estimated transit times of 14–18 days. Routes through Kazakhstan currently experience delays of 1–7 days, while some Chinese border crossings (e.g., Manzhouli, Erenhot) are overloaded, causing jams lasting 2–4 weeks. For Poland, investments in intermodal terminals and infrastructure along rail corridors that can take on a greater share of high-value cargo are becoming increasingly important.

Rail Land Corridors Return to the Forefront

Simultaneously, passenger transport strikes intensified in Europe^[13]. The ACOD Spoor union began a three-day strike on March 8 at 10:00 PM^[14], covering all categories of domestic trains and a significant portion of international traffic. On the first full day, about 70% of IC trains and 50% of local connections operated, marking the 33rd strike day for Belgian railways within the year. Brussels Airport canceled all passenger departures on March 12^[15] due to a nationwide union demonstration. In Italy, strike schedules included a 24-hour nationwide protest on March 9 covering buses, metro, regional trains, and some flights, and an 8-hour strike by the Italo-NTV carrier on March 11. Disputes concern employee status, early retirement rules, and wage indexation against inflation, causing severe disruptions to business and tourist travels, including passengers from Poland transferring in Brussels, Rome, or Milan.

New Technologies: eVTOL and Agent-based AI

The federal administration launched the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP)^[16], coordinated by the US Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration. Eight pilot projects were selected across 26 states^[17], with first flights planned for summer 2026. The program aims to collect early operational data prior to certifying Advanced Air Mobility vehicles, prepare infrastructure and regulations, and build a new layer of short-range air logistics. Beta Technologies was chosen to participate in 7 of the 8 projects^[18], covering cargo and medical transport in states such as New York, Texas, Utah, Florida, and North Carolina. eVTOLs are expected to fill the gap between road transport and traditional aviation, especially in last-mile logistics.

Supply chains are accelerating the adoption of artificial intelligence^[19]. Blue Yonder announced on March 11 the expansion of its agent-based AI and mobile applications^[20] for planning and execution solutions, including the Fulfillment & Sourcing agent (in beta) and agents for retail production planning and inventory replenishment. Blue Yonder’s systems are used by hundreds of clients in retail, manufacturing, and logistics worldwide. project44 announced its decision44 conferences in Chicago and Amsterdam^[21], where it will present a new wave of AI features in its Decision Intelligence platform. The project44 platform processes data for over 1.5 billion shipments annually^[22] and more than 1000 brands, with new tools designed to automate workflows, accelerate exception handling, and optimize the cost-service-risk balance. For operators and shippers in Poland, this means increasing pressure to integrate with global platforms and utilize AI components in TMS, WMS, and APS systems.

Aviation Decarbonization and Regulatory Changes in E-commerce

Heathrow Airport raised the target share of SAF in its fuel mix^[23]. Eco‑Refinerías del Sur plans a PtL installation^[24] with an initial capacity of 100,000 tons of SAF annually, expandable to 500,000 tons. The trend is supported by EU regulations^[25], including the Re. FuelEU regulation and rising emission prices under the EU ETS system, accelerating SAF production capacity growth and logistics infrastructure also in Central and Eastern Europe.

Customs reform in the European Union and changes in the Polish SENT system have special significance for e-commerce in Europe^[26]. Spring GDS analysis shows that from July 1, 2026, all shipments below 150 EUR value from third countries will be subject to a unified customs fee of 3 EUR per item and from November 2026 an additional handling fee of 2 EUR. The Union estimates it handles about 12 million packages daily valued at 150 EUR^[27], of which about 91% come from China. In Poland, the SENT system will be extended to cover clothing (CN codes 61–62)^[28] and footwear (CN 64) over 10 kg or 20 pairs, across road, rail and intermodal transport. About 1.2 billion courier shipments were handled^[29], and these changes will increase the complexity of customs processes and create an additional market for customs consulting services and IT solutions integrating SENT with TMS and WMS.

Related posts: