US Tariffs, Major Deals in Warsaw, and a Record Year for PRS – a Week That Changes the Market

On April 2, 2026, the administration of Donald Trump announced^[1] a reciprocal tariff system against nearly all of the United States’ trading partners. The minimum base rate is 10% for every country^[2], while for the European Union it reaches 20%^[3], alongside raising tariffs on products from China to 34%^[4] and imposing a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum. According to Yale Budget Lab, the US weighted average tariff increased from about 2.5% at the end of 2024 to nearly 22%, the highest level in over a century, directly driving up global construction material costs and increasing uncertainty among commercial real estate investors.]

Analysts at Cushman & Wakefield estimate that even before the latest wave of tariffs^[5] prices of construction materials in commercial projects had been rising by about 9% year over year^[6], while total investment costs were increasing by 4.6%^[7]. The ‘2026 U. S. Construction Perspective’ report prepared by JLL indicates the effects of the current package will unfold throughout 2026, and interest rate cuts will not fully compensate for the cost increases. At the same time, trade tensions could accelerate nearshoring to Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, as production in the European Union becomes relatively cheaper and less exposed to tariff risks for European buyers.

Amid global turmoil, the Warsaw office market signals a return of institutional capital.^[9] On March 31, 2026, Capital Park completed the sale of the Royal Wilanów complex^[10] in Warsaw to the Czech fund WOOD & Company (Fenix Real Estate Fund) for an amount exceeding 100 million euros, over 450 million zlotys^[11]. The property offers around 37,000 sqm of gross leasable area^[12], including 25,000 sqm of Class A offices and 12,000 sqm of retail-service space, fully leased to more than 80 tenants such as Hilti Polska, Erbud, Carrefour Polska, Medicover, and Lux. Med. This is one of the largest office transactions in recent quarters in the capital and a clear signal that core capital from Central and Eastern Europe views Poland as a priority market.

A few days earlier, on March 22–23, 2026, a Swiss family office^[13] represented by OPG Property Professionals, bought^[14] the LIXA D office building on Giełdowa 5 Street in Warsaw from Yareal Polska. This Class A building with approximately 10,000 sqm GLA^[15], completed in 2024 and 100% leased^[16], was financed with an investment loan from BNP Paribas Bank Polska. The price was not disclosed, but at this asset scale, the market estimates it below 50 million euros, fitting into the growing segment of deals valued between 30–100 million euros, attractive to new family office investors from Western Europe.

On March 29, 2026, CBRE Poland published the ‘2026 Poland Real Estate Market Outlook’ report^[17], which shows that in 2025, 5,821 new PRS units entered the market^[18], raising the total stock of institutional rental apartments to over 28,500 units^[19] in major cities. Vacancy rates remain very low at 3.5%, while rents range from 75 to 136 PLN per sqm monthly^[20] depending on location. An additional catalyst is the planned sale of a PRS portfolio^[21] by Echo Investment and the Resi4. Rent platform to Vantage Development, including about 5,322 units valued at roughly 2.4 billion zlotys, which roughly equates to 105,600 euros per unit, creating the first clear benchmark for the valuation of Polish PRS platforms.

Dom Development group sold 1,161 units, a 12% year-over-year increase^[23], posting the best first quarter in its history and signaling intentions to surpass the record 4,448 apartments sold in 2025. Atal increased its sales to 644 units, an 85% year-over-year growth^[24], with an offer of about 8,200 apartments and a goal of 2,500–3,000 units in 2026. Marvipol Development sold 150 units with a total value of 103.6 million zlotys^[25], while the Lokum Deweloper group sold 51 units, a 65% increase from the previous year^[26]. On the seven biggest developer markets, February sales reached about 4,300 units, growing by 21% year-over-year, while new supply fell to 1,500 units, a 58% drop month-over-month, clearly tightening the market.

For participants in the Polish commercial market, the collision of rising construction costs^[36] and increasing geopolitical tensions combined with new capital entering play^[37] means both risks and opportunities. On one hand, US tariffs and the Middle East conflict raise energy and material costs; on the other, nearshoring to Central and Eastern Europe and reindustrialization support warehouse demand^[38], as confirmed by investments such as Accolade and the Conseq fund in Kaufland’s distribution center in Bydgoszcz^[39]. with about 46,000 sqm^[40], financed by a loan from m. Bank worth 22 million euros. Key for the coming weeks will be closing the Echo/Resi4. Rent to Vantage transaction and the publication of quarterly reports from CBRE, JLL, Colliers, and Cushman & Wakefield for Poland, which will show whether the current window for entering Poland’s commercial real estate market is beginning to close.

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