Global Real Estate Market Enters 2026 with Three Crises and Selective Capital

The US office market vacancy rate fell to 18.4% at the end of December 2025^[1], down 140 basis points year-over-year, marking the lowest level since the pandemic in major cities. Manhattan and San Francisco saw the biggest drops in vacancies – by 300 and 370 basis points respectively – while Austin and Seattle still hold around 27% of vacant space. Meanwhile, in December 2025 alone, office transaction value reached $53 billion at an average price of $192 per square foot, with Manhattan sales hitting $7.8 billion in Q3 alone.

US Office Market Splits into Two Worlds

The revival is centered on the top-tier office segment. Prime rents in Manhattan reach $68.15 per square foot monthly^[3], and $63.15 in San Francisco. The US average rate is $32.86. At the same time, new supply is plunging dramatically: the office pipeline is just 30.9 million square feet^[2], barely 0.4% of existing stock and 44% less than in January 2024. New deliveries in Q3 2025 amounted to only 42.4 million square feet, the lowest level in a decade. Modern buildings completed after 2014 have about 5.7% vacancies, while older properties exceed 13.7% and are increasingly going into forced sales or conversions into residential units – the pipeline already contains 70,700 residential units^[5] created through such transformations.

Warehouse Deficit in Europe and Pressure on Logistics

Meanwhile, a logistics crisis is brewing in Europe. An investment gap in the warehouse sector reaches around €150 billion^[4], and the vacancy rate in modern logistics facilities falls below 5%^[6] amid a sharp rise in demand driven by e-commerce. The lack of available space combined with growing e-commerce volumes limits further growth opportunities for operators and retail networks, while also hindering expansion by new players. On top of this is a wave of debt refinancing – in 2026 the global market faces liabilities totaling about $1.5 trillion, which must be serviced under more conservative bank approaches prioritizing cash flow generation over simple credit scores.

Warsaw Offices Shrink, Prime Rents Rise

The Warsaw office market enters 2026 with relatively low vacancy levels and the tightest prime segment in its history. The vacancy rate in the capital stands at 9.7%^[1], but modern buildings completed after 2014 approach 5.7%, while older facilities exceed 13.7%. Prime rents in the central business district reach 22–28 euros per square meter monthly, and outside the center 16–18 euros. Meanwhile, in 2025 over 140,000 square meters were withdrawn from the market, mainly in buildings constructed before 2000 requiring modernization or functional changes. The pipeline for new offices in 2026 is just 60,000 square meters, the lowest value in Warsaw’s market history, signaling further upward pressure on rents in prime locations.

Mortgages Get Cheaper, Polish Housing Faces New Wave

Housing financing is starting to get cheaper. In early February 2026, the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage in the US dropped to 5.99% from 6% at the end of January^[1], while the rate for a 15-year loan was 5.37%. Refinancing rates for 30-year loans declined to 6.38%, a drop of 26 basis points in a week. The share of homeowners with rates above 6% is beginning to exceed those with lower rates, gradually reducing the so-called “lock-in” effect which could stimulate supply in the secondary market. Meanwhile, home sales in the US in 2025 were the lowest in nearly 30 years, with the housing market taking on a “K-shaped” unequal trajectory – purchases concentrated among wealthier buyers and a rental dominance among lower-income households.

ESG, Last Mile, and Regulations Shift Investor Strategies

In Poland, the residential real estate market is stabilizing rather than growing dynamically. The average time a property stays on the market is about 75 days, transaction prices on the secondary market are on average 4–6% below asking prices, and new units make up 30–40% of available offers, distinguishing Poland from the most “strained” European markets. Analysts, however, anticipate price increases from Q2 2026, partly due to approximately a 60% drop in building permits in 2025. The Polish logistics sector maintains a strong position thanks to power access, projects like Rail Baltica, and a favorable location on trade corridors. Institutional investors increasingly seek ready residential projects or GDV ventures, especially in ESG-certified buildings that facilitate financing and allow for higher rents.

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