One month into the 2025-26 NHL season, the competitive landscape has shifted dramatically from preseason predictions. According to ESPN’s comprehensive analysis, four teams have significantly exceeded expectations while four others underperform.
The Overachievers: Riding Momentum or Built to Last?
The Pittsburgh Penguins lead the surprise category, posting a 12-3-1 record despite preseason models projecting them as fringe playoff contenders. NHL.com statistics show Pittsburgh’s expected goals percentage at 54.2%, suggesting genuine systemic improvements. Sidney Crosby, at 38, leads the team with 18 points in 16 games.
The Seattle Kraken sit third in the Pacific Division after finishing 25th overall in 2024-25. Montreal’s resurgence, powered by Juraj Slafkovsky’s breakout (11 goals in 16 games), has the Canadiens contending after three basement finishes.
The Underperformers: Systemic Issues or Early Variance?
The New York Rangers occupy unexpected positions near the bottom despite possessing the NHL’s second-highest salary cap commitment at $87.4 million. With a 6-8-2 record through November 12, Artemi Panarin’s five-game goalless drought and Igor Shesterkin’s .894 save percentage represent significant deviations from established baselines.
Hockey Reference data reveals New York’s PDO sits at 97.2, suggesting negative variance rather than fundamental roster problems. The Colorado Avalanche struggle with injuries to Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, who have missed 11 combined games.
Historical data shows 60% of teams holding playoff positions on November 15 maintain those spots through April. Evolving Hockey’s regression models now project Pittsburgh with 78% playoff probability despite 45% odds in October.
Sources:
– ESPN: NHL 2025-26 Surprises and Trends Analysis
– NHL.com: Official League Statistics
– Sportsnet: NHL Coverage and Analysis
– Hockey Reference: Historical NHL Data and Statistics
– Evolving Hockey: Advanced Analytics and Projections