Ormuz, Rotterdam, and the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern Merger: A Week of Major Transport Disruptions

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) in recent analyses described^[6] the closure of the Strait of Ormuz as the biggest supply chain disruption since the COVID‑19 pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine. About 70,000 tons of food are stuck at sea^[3], including 30,000 tons in containers filled with canned goods, peas, and other staples. According to Deputy Executive Director Carla Skau and Regional Director Corinne Fleischer, an additional 45 million people could experience severe hunger by June 2026, raising the global number of hungry people to around 363 million. Rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope increased ship traffic^[7] on that route by 112% year-over-year, lengthening transit time by 25–30 days and raising shipping costs by 15–25%, while war insurance premiums have soared to more than 12 times normal levels^[9].

Ormuz Crisis Threatens Hunger

At the same time, freight shipping markets face strong price pressure. The rate for VLCC supertankers on the Middle East–China route (TD3) reached^[1] around $423,736 per day at the beginning of March, and the WBSC index climbed to over $936 per ton from about $540 before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. The Baltic Dry Index stood at 2,066 points on April 2, marking a 34.16% increase year-over-year, with a monthly correction of 7.85%. For Polish importers, this means more expensive transport of coal, ores, and grain, along with sustained rises in bulk goods and energy prices across Europe.

Rotterdam and London Gateway Ports Under Pressure

On April 5, 2026, Maersk warned customers about severe congestion at the port of Rotterdam^[2], which handles about 15 million TEU annually and is a key hub for cargo to and from Poland. According to data from Kukla Beverage Logistics, vessel delays reach 1–2 weeks, and storage yards are 75–95% full. Backlogs at Hamburg’s CTA terminal are causing a domino effect on Asian services. Meanwhile, London Gateway port struggles with multiple failures of modular cranes, extending truck turnaround times to 3–4 hours and pushing carriers to redirect vessels to Southampton and Felixstowe. For Polish importers, this requires adding at least an extra 10–14 days of buffer time and facing the risk of rising demurrage and detention costs.

First Transcontinental Railroad in the USA?

In the U. S. rail market, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern announced plans to submit a revised merger application on April 30, 2026,^[24] to the Surface Transportation Board (STB). The deal is valued at about $85 billion, and the combined company would have a market capitalization exceeding $250 billion, a network spanning over 50,000 miles of track across 43 states, and access to around 100 ports. Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena and Norfolk Southern CEO Mark George promise additional capex of $2.1 billion and annual capital synergies of $133 million. The STB decision is expected in 2027, while attorneys general from seven Republican-led states warn of anticompetitive effects. If approved, likely with infrastructure access conditions (reciprocal switching), this would create the first transcontinental freight railroad in U. S. history, forcing a revision of intermodal service networks of global ocean carriers such as MSC and CMA CGM.

Dispute Over Costly IMO Net‑Zero Framework

Meanwhile, a critical maritime dispute continues over the IMO Net‑Zero Framework (NZF). Full implementation of the NZF would increase shipping costs^[4] by about 20% by 2040, but reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35–55% within the same timeframe. The framework proposes two price tiers for emission reduction units: Tier 1 at $100 per ton of CO₂eq and Tier 2 at $380 CO₂eq, directly impacting bunkering costs and favoring alternative fuels like e-hydrogen, e-ammonia, and e-methane. The U. S.–Saudi Arabia bloc blocked the vote in October 2025, postponing the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) decision at least until November 2026. For Polish ports in Gdańsk and Gdynia, this means planning investments in infrastructure for LNG, hydrogen, or methanol bunkering amid significant regulatory uncertainty.

Sysco Reshapes Food Distribution

In food distribution, the key news is the March 30, 2026 acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot by Sysco for $29.1 billion (enterprise value), including about $21 billion in new and hybrid debt plus $1 billion in cash and Sysco shares. Jetro shareholders are to receive $21.6 and 91.5 million Sysco shares, giving them about 16% ownership in the combined company. Restaurant Depot operates 166 warehouses across 35 states under a cash-and-carry model, while Sysco serves about 700,000 customers in the Ho. Re. Ca segment^[5]. According to Sysco CEO Kevin Hourican, integrating supply with the self-service wholesale network can cut last-mile costs by 30–35% and create the largest multi-channel food distribution system in the U. S. For European operators like metro.de and MAKRO Polska, this signals strong pressure toward similar consolidation in delivery models.

For Polish companies, the week of April 1–7, 2026 marks entry into a prolonged period of rising transport costs. The simultaneous impact of the Ormuz crisis and the related need to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope, rising freight rates and Baltic Dry index, Easter congestion in Rotterdam, disruptions at UK ports, and likely regulatory-driven increases in shipping service prices under the IMO NZF create an especially challenging environment for exporters and importers. Businesses in Poland must factor in additional delivery buffers of several weeks in their planning, prepare for sustained cost increases of at least several percentage points, and closely monitor both the NZF developments at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Surface Transportation Board’s decision on the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger, which could indirectly affect prices and availability of intermodal services on the America–Europe corridor.

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