Pensions, Interest Rates, and Cyberfraud: Key Changes at the Start of 2026

The Central Statistical Office published on February 9, 2026, data on the average wage in the national economy for 2025 amounting to 8,903.56 PLN, representing an 8.82% year-on-year increase. Based on this, the final pension indexation rate for 2026 was calculated, which will be 5.3%, higher than the 4.88%^[2] stipulated in the budget law. The lowest pension will increase from 1,878.91 PLN to 1,978.49 PLN gross, i.e., by 99.58 PLN gross and about 90.62 PLN net. A pension of 3,000 PLN gross will rise to 3,159 PLN gross, and a 5,000 PLN benefit to 5,265 PLN gross. The total cost of indexation is estimated at around 24.8 billion PLN^[3], about 2 billion PLN more than the Social Insurance Fund’s financial plan had assumed. Institution will carry out the increase ex officio, without the need to file applications, based on data from the Central Statistical Office and a statement prepared by the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy.

Lowest Pension Adjustment Since 2021

The pension increase will also affect the size of additional payments. The thirteenth pension in 2026 will amount to 1,978.49 PLN gross^[4] and will be paid to pensioners in April, while the net amount will depend on the total income in that month, ranging from about 1,443 PLN to about 1,638 PLN. The fourteenth pension will still income threshold of 2,900 PLN gross, with a “one-for-one” rule above this limit; those receiving pensions of around 4,879 PLN gross or more will not receive this benefit. Experts point out that despite the additional burden on the Social Insurance Fund estimated at 2 billion PLN, the system has a buffer of about 15 billion PLN^[16] and should absorb the higher indexation cost. At the same time, this is the lowest adjustment since 2021, after record hikes over 14% in 2023–2024, so some pensioners may feel a relatively weaker improvement in the purchasing power of their benefits.

Interest Rates and Borrowers’ Situation

At the meeting on February 3–4, 2026, The Monetary Policy Council kept the reference rate of the National Bank of Poland at 4.00%^[10], with the lombard rate at 4.50% and the deposit rate at 3.50%. In a statement after the meeting, the Council indicated the possibility of a drop in consumer inflation in the first quarter of 2026 towards the NBP’s inflation target, which is confirmed by the December CPI reading at 2.4% year-on-year^[11] and the forecast average inflation for 2026 of about 2.2%. Analysts from the largest banks, including analysts from PKO BP and Bank Pekao^[8], as well as the futures market, anticipate a baseline scenario of two interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each in March and April, totaling 0.5 percentage points. For mortgage borrowers with variable rates, this means a chance for lower installments in the upcoming quarters, while savers on deposits and savings accounts should expect possible interest rate drops and may consider locking rates for longer terms before the start of the cutting cycle.

Higher Limits in the Third Pillar

From 2026 onwards, limits for contributions to third pillar pension accounts are rising. For the Individual Retirement Account, the maximum contribution this year is 28,260 PLN^[29], up from 26,019 PLN in 2025, while the limit Pension Security Account is 11,304 PLN for individuals and 16,956 PLN for the self-employed. The same limit as for the IRA applies to Open Individual Pension Plans – 28,260 PLN, while the maximum additional contribution in employee pension programs reaches 42,390 PLN. Altogether, a household where both members actively use IRA and IPSA can allocate up to 135,648 PLN annually^[31], avoiding capital gains tax. Contributions to IPSA also give the possibility of deducting them from the tax base in annual PIT returns, and investments in IRA and OIPI are exempt from capital gains tax when age and savings period conditions are met. Financial market specialists encourage planning contributions as early as possible in the year to enjoy potential investment gains longer.

Social Insurance Institution Adjudication Reform

Important changes are also taking place in the adjudication and control system of medical leave in the Social Insurance Institution. The act from December 18, 2025, published on January 12, 2026, in the Journal of Laws^[20], introduces a one-person adjudication model in both instances instead of the previous three-person committees^[22], with a three-person composition remaining only for particularly complicated cases. The amendment also softens the strict approach to activity during medical leave, introducing the notions of “incidental activities” and “ordinary daily activities,” which should not lead to loss of the right to sickness benefits. At the same time, the Social Insurance Institution gains formal access to medical documentation to conduct broader verification of the legitimacy of issued medical leaves. From 2027 onward, the act will allow situations where an employee can be on medical leave with one employer while simultaneously working for another, provided it complies with the issued certificate.

Growing Fear of Cyberfraud

Research ‘Poles’ Wallets at the Threshold of 2026′ prepared by ChronPESEL.pl^[23] and the National Debt Register shows that cyberfraud has become the third biggest financial concern for Polish residents. The risk of losing money due to internet attacks was pointed out by 28% of respondents^[23], more than a lack of savings (25%) or job loss/income drop (22%). Inflation remains the top concern, feared by 57% of survey participants, followed by unexpected large expenses at 47%. According to data referenced in the study, the number of cybersecurity incidents in 2025 rose by 100% year-on-year, reflecting the growing scale of extortion and attempts to steal funds from bank accounts. Financial institutions and security experts recommend verifying the senders of SMS and emails about payments, avoiding clicking on links with “urgent” payment requests, regularly monitoring bank transaction histories, and using the option to block the PESEL number in the m. Obywatel app, which can hinder taking obligations under someone else’s data.

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