Real Estate Market: 10 Key Signals (December 16–23, 2025)

On December 18, 2025 In 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates^[2] at 2.15% for the main rate and 2.0% for the deposit rate. Christine Lagarde emphasized that the bank will make decisions^[1] based on data and has not set a predetermined path for rate cuts. Despite forecasts of inflation falling to 1.9% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, geopolitical risks prompted the ECB to adopt a cautious stance, making significant reductions in mortgage financing costs unlikely in 2026.

European Central Bank Policy

In December 2025 the median price of secondary market apartments in Warsaw was 16,964 PLN/m²^[4] (a 0.21% month-to-month decrease), while on the primary market it was 16,404 PLN/m² (a 2.6% year-on-year decline). Active sales listings in the city reached 11,680^[32] (an increase of 441 compared to the previous month), indicating a balance between supply and demand. At the same time, the offer on the six largest markets in the country totaled about 57 thousand units, and the average rental price reached 3,500 PLN (approximately 79 PLN/m²). The spatial planning reform scheduled for June 2026 threatens to reduce land availability and reverse the current equilibrium.

ATAL’s financial report for November reveals mounting problems in the industry: the company’s total debt amounts to about 2 billion PLN^[7] (780 million PLN in long-term loans, 690 short-term loans, 130 bonds, and 150 leasing), while financial costs rose from 7.7 million PLN a year earlier to 60.9 million PLN^[17]. A declining gross margin from 20% to 17% confirms that developers financed by cheap credit in 2023–2024 now must accelerate sales, which may cause downward price pressure in the first half of 2026.

Housing Market in Warsaw

Data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) and sector statistics show record mortgage loan sales in Poland: annually 92.6 billion PLN, and in October 2025 24.1 thousand mortgages were granted (+40% year-on-year)^[8]. However, 18% of this value consists of refinancings (up from 13% in 2024), masking weak demand for new loans. Banks are using this period to compete for clients and may lower margins, but the pace of new loans is expected to slow after the first quarter of 2026^[3].

The office sector in Warsaw achieved low vacancy rates: 9.7% citywide and 6.9% in the center (Q3 2025)^[11]. The pipeline of new space fell to 1.47 million m² (a 26% year-on-year decrease), with speculative projects making up only 41%. Investment transactions increased to 694 million EUR (+135% year-on-year)^[10], although a large part involved sale & leaseback operations (40%). In the warehouse and logistics sector, nearshoring and reshoring drive demand for buffer spaces, though developers more often renegotiate existing contracts than start new projects.

Risks and Trends for 2026

The PRS segment is growing rapidly: Poland operated 24,400 PRS units (+30% year-on-year) managed by 33 operators^[12], with planned supply for 2025 of 5,700 units across 20 projects. The vacancy rate in PRS is only 5%, putting operators in a strong pricing position compared to the traditional market. The PwC and ULI report also highlights rising concerns: 70% of industry leaders in Europe are worried about the impact of deglobalization^[14], and 90% indicated growing political instability. Additional risks in Poland include the announced planning reform (June 2026) and uncertainty related to the possible introduction of a property tax.

On foreign markets, the situation shows similar trends: housing prices fell in November and December 2025^[19] (price per sqft –1.3%), and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports that 41% of builders lowered prices in November, offering incentives up to 100,000 USD. These experiences show that oversupply in the popular segment may force price cuts, while the premium market will remain resilient. Additional signals worth watching include the new EPBD directive on energy efficiency, accelerated nearshoring, rising office conversions^[24], and the potential increase in bankruptcies and restructurings among heavily indebted entities.

Conclusions for 2026: maintaining high financing costs in the short term, potential selective price drops in the popular segment, margin pressure on developers, and the growing importance of PRS and conversion projects^[15]. Spatial planning reform and potential property tax pose the greatest risk to supply^[16] and may increase upward price pressure from the second half of 2026.