Scientists from the University of Reading have developed six long-term scenarios along with multiple short-term ones. The study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, fills a critical information gap on unlikely but highly impactful climate change outcomes. Until now, only sea level rise had such detailed extreme scenarios.
Long-term worst-case scenarios developed by University of Reading
Professor Nigel Arnell, the lead author, emphasized that these scenarios are not predictions but probable future variants. He pointed out that previously the UK lacked tools to test policies against the worst possible climate events. The new data is intended to help policymakers prepare for consequences that no one wants but cannot be ignored.
Potential impacts range from extreme heatwaves to drastic cooling
Among the scenarios to 2100 is a global temperature rise above 4°C in case of failed climate action or accelerated feedback loops__CITEND__. This would mean extreme heatwaves and droughts drastically altering British summers. Conversely, a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a key climate tipping point, could lower UK temperatures by 2.5°C to 6°C year-round .
Other scenarios include a rapid sea level rise of 2.0 to 2.2 meters by 2100 if land ice melts accelerate. There is also the potential for a major volcanic eruption cooling the climate by roughly 2.5°C for five years, plus an additional warming of 0.75°C triggered by a sharp drop in aerosol pollution.
Government investing billions to boost climate resilience
Short-term scenarios describe extreme months or seasons that can occur at any time. During hot spells, temperatures may rise by 4°C to 7°C above normal. Rainfall could increase by 2.5 to 3 times or drop to just 10% of usual levels. Wind speeds may spike by 60% to 80% beyond the average, further affecting weather conditions.
A UK government spokesperson highlighted that climate change remains “at the centre of this government’s agenda“. They noted that the UK is investing £10.5 billion in flood defenses to protect nearly 900,000 properties by 2036. The new scenarios aim to guide further planning and strengthen the country’s resilience against unpredictable climate shifts.