Shipping Disruptions, Kuehne+Nagel Cuts, and Record Air Demand Reshape Global Transport

Tensions around the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz continue to severely disrupt^[1] shipping between Asia and Europe. According to analyses by BRF Logistics, carriers still avoid the Suez Canal, extending Asia-Europe voyages by about 10–14 days and limiting the effective supply of container slots. The quarterly report “Logistics Report March 2026” indicates that at the peak of the crisis, shipment volumes in this region dropped by around 60%, with most services still rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. The report’s authors estimate that a single voyage circumventing Suez generates roughly $1 million in additional fuel costs, alongside increased insurance and port fees.

Red Sea Extends Asia-Europe Routes

BRF Logistics emphasizes that many major carriers^[3] have recently been adjusting their networks again, with freight rates remaining highly volatile and lacking stable pricing ranges. The situation hits exporters and importers in the European Union, North America, and the Middle East, including entities from Poland. Experts warn of the risk of further ocean freight rate hikes and war surcharges, as well as the need to increase safety stock levels in Central Europe. This may strengthen the importance of overland corridors through Central and Eastern Europe as supply chain safeguards and stimulate the growth of sea–air and rail–sea combinations.

Kuehne+Nagel Cuts Costs and Focuses on Automation

Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, the global logistics operator Kuehne+Nagel announces its own adjustments^[7]. In a statement dated March 2, 2026, the company reported that in 2025 its Sea Logistics division generated net revenues of 8.8 billion Swiss francs, a recurring EBIT of 585 million francs, and handled 4.3 million TEU, maintaining its leadership position in ocean transport. Meanwhile, according to a Reuters dispatch, management raised its workforce reduction plan to over 2,000 positions following a 17% decline in recurring operating profit in 2025. The company did not disclose the exact amount of planned savings but promises full program effects in 2026 and forecasts a recurring EBIT for the entire group between 1.2 and 1.4 billion francs.

Cuts at Kuehne+Nagel may lead to adjustments in 3PL and 4PL service rates^[6], changes in order processing times, and availability of capacity for customers in Europe, including Poland. Management points to the growing role of air transport in balancing marine disruptions and warns that shifting cargo from sea to air could deepen capacity shortages in air cargo, despite about 18% of global capacity in passenger aircraft belly holds remaining unused. At the same time, the operator is accelerating automation and digitalization processes to reduce cost pressures with lower employment.

Record Aircraft Load Factors According to IATA

New data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) dated March 1–2, 2026, show that global passenger demand remains high at the start of the year^[4]. In January 2026, total demand measured by the RPK indicator was 3.8% higher than the previous year, with seat supply (ASK) up 3.5% and an average load factor of 82.0%, the highest ever recorded for this month. Demand on international flights increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while domestic traffic remained virtually unchanged (+0.1%), which IATA partly attributes to the Chinese New Year shift from January 2025 to February 2026. Without detailed revenue data, the association assesses that with positive supply growth and high load factors, the market can continue growing at a “healthy” pace.

In January 2026, total demand measured by the RPK indicator was 3.8% higher year-on-year^[5], with seat supply (ASK) rising 3.5% and an average load factor of 82.0%, the highest in historical records for that month. Demand on international flights grew by 5.9% year over year, whereas domestic traffic saw almost no change (+0.1%), a trend that IATA links among other things to the Chinese New Year shift from January 2025 to February 2026. Lacking detailed revenue figures, the association estimates that with positive supply growth and high load factors, the market may continue to expand at a “healthy” rate.

Full CO₂ Emission Costs for Airlines in the EU

According to IATA, airlines worldwide will increase available seats by about 5.2% by March, signaling a return to a highly competitive market on many routes, but without clear pressure for significant ticket price cuts in the summer season. High load factors and growing international traffic emphasize the importance of efficient utilization of airport slots and transfer terminal capacities, including those serving passengers to and from Poland. At the same time, the system’s sensitivity to disruptions from strikes or regulatory changes in European air traffic control is increasing.

An analysis by the Climate Catalyst organization from March 2026 recalls^[19] that since 2026 arema of free emission allowances has been removed from the EU ETS system for aviation. Airlines operating in European airspace, including those flying to and from Poland, must now cover CO₂ emission costs entirely from their own funds. On the same day, March 4, 2026, European Union institutions announced the “Industrial Accelerator Act” project aimed at supporting the scale-up of green hydrogen production — a crucial raw material for synthetic e-fuel production in aviation.

Germany Prepares for Another Wave of Strikes

Alongside global changes in aviation, european mobility is disrupted by public transport strikes in Germany^[2]. According to Strike. Tracker and statements from the trade union ver.di, after a nationwide 48-hour local public transport strike across 14 federal states on February 27–28, union members announced further warning strikes from March 9 to 11, 2026. In Thuringia, a three-day strike of local carriers is planned in Erfurt, Jena, Gera, Weimar, Nordhausen, and Gotha, running from March 9 at 03:00 to March 12 at 05:00, potentially stopping tram and bus traffic largely.

On the same day, March 9, one-day warning strikes are scheduled for municipal transport operators in Rostock and Dortmund^[11]. This wave of protests directly affects daily mobility, commuting to work, schools, and airports, and indirectly disrupts urban logistics and last-mile delivery. For carriers, freight forwarders, and e-commerce companies, this means implementing emergency distribution plans, extending delivery times, and increasing the risk of delays in parcel handling on the key German market, which is closely connected with Poland’s economy.

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