TL;DR (Key Information)
Oil Escalation: The war has hit energy infrastructure — Israel attacked refineries in Tehran, Iran responded with a strike on the refinery in Haifa using cluster munitions.
Market Shock: The price of Brent crude broke through 100 USD/bbl (reaching 116 USD on Monday morning), the highest level since 2022.
Succession in Iran: The Assembly of Experts achieved a unanimous consensus regarding Khamenei’s successor (probably Mojtaba Khamenei).
Role of Major Powers: Russia was accused of providing Iran with satellite data on US forces; China is preparing financial and technological aid.
IRGC Rebellion: The Command of the Guardians of the Revolution ignored President Pezeshkian’s order to cease attacks on Gulf states.
March 9, 2026, 10:45 AM CET | Day 10 of Operation “Epic Fury”
Condensed Background (until March 5)
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began Operation “Epic Fury” / “Roaring Lion” — massive air and missile strikes on Iran. In the raids, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior IRGC and military commanders were killed. Iran responded with Operation “True Promise IV”: salvos of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The IRGC forced a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz — tanker traffic dropped by 90%, 7 sailors died in 4 attacks on ships. As of March 5, at least 6 US soldiers had died, along with over 1,300 Iranian civilians (data from Iran’s ambassador to the UN), and an exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel continued in Lebanon (217 killed according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health). [5][6][7][8][4][9]
Timeline: March 6–9, 2026 (Reverse Order)
March 9, up to 9:00 AM CET (Monday)
Explosions in the Gulf: Multiple detonations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar in the early morning. [4]
Bahrain: Iranian drone attack near Manama — 32 injured (4 in critical condition). [4]
Saudi Arabia: Saudi forces destroyed 4 Iranian drones targeting the Shaybah oil field. [4]
Energy Market: Trading open: Brent ~116 USD/bbl; WTI ~115 USD/bbl; Murban: 112.5 USD. [24][27]
March 8 (Sunday)
Strike on Haifa: IRGC attacked the Bazan Group refinery in Haifa with Kheibar-shekan missiles. Reports of cluster munition use. [19][20][11]
Raids on Iran: Over 80 Israeli fighters dropped approximately 230 bombs on Tehran, Shiraz airport (5 military aircraft destroyed), and F-14 bases in Isfahan. 4 deaths in oil facilities officially confirmed. [1][12][4]
Human Cost: CENTCOM confirmed the death of the 7th US soldier (injured March 1). Iranian Red Crescent: 65 schools and 32 medical facilities hit since the start of the war. [4]
Economy: Oil surpassed 100 USD. Brent: ~107–109 USD/bbl; WTI: ~108–110 USD/bbl. Dow futures dropped by 800 points (−1.7%). [22][23][24][1]
Politics: The Assembly of Experts announced a “unanimous consensus” regarding Khamenei’s successor. Speculation centers on Mojtaba Khamenei (57). Israel threatened to prosecute members of the Assembly. [2][25][26]
March 7 (Saturday)
FIRST STRIKES ON OIL: IDF attacked Tondgouyan (Shahr Rey) and Shahran (Tehran) refineries, and fuel depots in Karaj — the first attack on Iran’s energy sector. [12][13]
Missile Infrastructure: Strikes in Parchin and Shahroud destroyed 2–3 solid fuel production plants. Israel assesses that Iran has only approximately 120 launchers left (a decrease of ~90%). [13]
Rebellion in Tehran: President Pezeshkian ordered a halt to attacks on Gulf states. IRGC ignored the order, attacking Dubai airport and the Aramco Berri refinery. [11][13]
Lebanese Front: Raid by Israeli special operations forces (SOF) in Nabi Chit. 16 people died in the raids. Hezbollah carried out 23 attacks on Israel. [17][18][13]
Evacuation: Over 150 Iranian citizens, including diplomats, left Lebanon on a Russian plane. [13]
March 6 (Friday)
US Position: Trump: “There are no time limits” for the war. Hegseth: the war “has only just begun.” [10][4]
Iran’s Losses: IDF destroyed 16 Quds Force aircraft at Mehrabad airport. CENTCOM: 43 Iranian ships destroyed since the start of the operation. [11][12][4][13]
Accusations against Russia: WP and CNN revealed that Russia is passing Iran intelligence on the location of US forces (“comprehensive targeting support”). [3][16]
82nd Airborne Division: Sudden cancellation of command exercises, raising speculation about preparations for a ground operation. [14][15][10]
Internment: Sri Lanka interned the Iranian tanker IRIS Bushehr. [4]
Certainty Matrix: Facts vs. Suppositions
Fact (Confirmed)
| Fact (Confirmed) | Confirming Sources |
| IDF attacked Iran’s oil infrastructure (Tondgouyan, Shahran). | IDF, Iran International, satellite images, CTP-ISW [13][12] |
| Iran attacked the Bazan refinery in Haifa. | IRGC (Sepah News), Xinhua [11][19] |
| The price of Brent crude broke through 100 USD/bbl on March 8. | Reuters, CNN, TradingEconomics [1][22][23] |
| Russia passes Iran intelligence on US forces. | Washington Post, CNN [3][16] |
| The Assembly of Experts reached a consensus regarding the successor. | Mehr News, Al Jazeera [2][25][26] |
| Death of the 7th US soldier as a result of wounds. | CENTCOM communique [4] |
Disputed Claim
| Disputed Claim | What sources say |
| Number of casualties in Iran | Iran’s Ambassador (UN): 1,332 civilians. HRA: 912 civilians. Wikipedia: 1,216–4,145 killed total. [5][28][4] |
| Attack on a school in Minab | Iran: 180 children killed (Israel’s fault). NYT suggests responsibility of US forces. Lack of independent verification. [4][29] |
| Mojtaba Khamenei as successor | Strong media speculation; The Assembly has not officially revealed the name. [2][21][30] |
| Cluster munitions | Reports of their use by Iran on March 8. Lack of confirmation by IDF. [20] |
Official Government Positions
| Country | Official Position |
| USA | Trump: “Only unconditional surrender.” Hegseth: “The war has only just begun.” No plans (officially) for a ground operation. [22][10][4] |
| Israel | Netanyahu: “Uprooting the regime.” IDF expands targets to refineries and airports. Threats against the Assembly of Experts. [2][12][13] |
| Iran | Pezeshkian (President) apologizes to neighbors; IRGC (Guardians) ignore him, escalating attacks. Larijani: “The USA has fallen into a trap.” [7][11][21] |
| Gulf | UAE: “We are at war.” Qatar: 10 IRGC agents arrested; the war “will destroy the world’s economies.” [21][13][33] |
Scenarios and Effects
Military
| Scenario | Description | Probability |
| Air war | Continuation of the campaign for 4–6 weeks; destruction of the final 120 launchers. | Medium–High |
| US ground operation | Securing nuclear facilities by small contingents (e.g., 82nd Division). | Low–Medium |
| Regional escalation | Full inclusion of the Houthis and Iraqi militias; activation of NATO Art. 4/5 by Turkey. | Rising |
Economic (Brent Crude Oil)
| Strait of Hormuz Status | Brent Price | Effects |
| Closed < 2 weeks | 100–120 USD | Inflation spike; release of strategic reserves (SPR). |
| Closed 2–4 weeks | 120–150 USD | Force majeure in Kuwait/UAE; energy rationing in Asia. |
| Closed > 1 month | > 150 USD | Global stagflation; supply chain paralysis; gas in the UE > 60 EUR. |
Risk Matrix: What to observe?
| Indicator | Why it matters |
| Name of successor | Will determine the direction: escalation (Mojtaba) vs. attempt at a deal. |
| Movements of the 82nd Division | Confirmation of the transition to the ground phase of the conflict. |
| Attacks on refineries | Every hit is a spike in oil prices by 5–10 USD/bbl. |
| Reaction of China | Beijing loses billions due to the Hormuz blockade; may enforce pressure on Iran. |
| NATO Art. 4/5 | Incidents in Turkey or Cyprus could drag in the entire Alliance. |
Full List of Sources
[1] Crude oil prices top $100 a barrel – wtvr.com
[2] Consensus reached on Khamenei’s successor – Al Jazeera
[3] Russia is aiding Iran with intel on US forces – CNN
[5] 1,332 Iranian civilians killed – Reuters
[6] 217 killed in Lebanon – YouTube/Health Ministry
[7] 10 vessels attacked in Hormuz – Straitstimes
[8] 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis – Wikipedia
[9] 2026 Iran conflict – Britannica
[10] 82nd Airborne Cancels Training – en.sedaily.com
[11] Haifa oil refinery targeted – Iran International
[12] Daily Report: March 8 – Israel Alma
[13] Iran Update, March 7 – Critical Threats
[14] US 82nd Airborne halts drill – Biz Chosun
[15] Army exercise cancellation speculation – Washington Post
[16] Iran Update, March 6 – ISW
[17] 16 dead in Israeli strikes – Reuters
[18] Strike on Beirut hotel – english.news.cn
[19] Iran targets Israeli refinery – Daily Finland
[20] Sirens blare across Israel – YouTube/Gulf Crisis
[21] Iran Threatens Long War – Chosun Ilbo
[23] Brent crude price – TradingEconomics
[24] Brent Crude spikes to $107 – Gulf News
[25] Decision on new supreme leader – english.news.cn
[26] Assembly of Experts Consensus – Al Jazeera
[27] Brent price information – FT.com
[28] HRA documentos 912 civilian fatalities – HRA Iran
[29] 1,500 killed so far – Hengaw
[30] What is Iran’s Assembly of Experts? – Euronews
[31] Where are Iran’s allies? – Al Jazeera
[32] Civilian deaths in Iran – The Guardian
[33] Brent Mar ’26 Futures – Barchart
[34] Did Iran programs pose imminent threat? – Arms Control
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