COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONAL REPORT: USA–Israel–Iran War: Period: March 13 (0:00) – March 16, 2026 (9:00 AM CET)

TL;DR — Key Events (72h)

Tactical Escalation: The US and Israel have announced the “functional defeat” of Iran’s ballistic missile production capabilities. 80% of Iranian air defenses have been destroyed.
Battle of Kharg: Over 90 precision strikes by CENTCOM on Kharg Island, eliminating Iran’s naval mine stockpiles.
Hormuz Blockade: Traffic has dropped by 98.5%. As of the morning of March 16, zero movement of large tankers was recorded (excluding one supertanker bound for China).
Humanitarian Crisis: 4,900 casualties in Iran, 850 in Lebanon (including 106 children), 3.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Iran.
Economy: Brent crude surpassed $105. In Poland, fuel prices are up 15% in two weeks; projected CPI inflation spike of 1 percentage point.

DETAILED TIMELINE (Reverse Chronology)

Time (CET)	Event	Operational Details
March 16, 8:30 AM	Dubai Attack	Drones struck a fuel tanker at Dubai International Airport. Flight operations suspended.
March 16, 7:00 AM	Hormuz Blockade	Confirmed zero traffic of large tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
March 15, 9:00 PM	Energy Market	Brent opens with a 3% gap up, reaching $105/bbl.
March 15, 2:00 PM	Diplomacy	Trump (on Air Force One) confirms contacts with Iran but denies readiness for a deal.
March 14, 6:00 PM	Hezbollah Attack	Record 43 rocket salvos fired within 24 hours at northern Israel.
March 14, 12:00 PM	IDF Maneuvers	Deployment of heavy armored units toward the Litani River (preparation for S3).
March 13, 11:30 PM	Kharg Strike	Strike on the Matla ul-Fajr radar (500 km range) and naval mine storage facilities.
March 13, 3:00 PM	Al-Quds Day	Airstrikes on Tehran during ongoing demonstrations; civilian death reported (one woman).

TACTICAL AND FRONT-LINE ANALYSIS

1. Coalition Actions (USA / Israel)

Intensity: IDF maintains a pace of over 200 strikes per day, focusing on central and western Iran.
Strategic Targets:
- Iranian Space Research Center (Tehran): Destruction of infrastructure critical to the ICBM program.
- Shiraz Electronics Industries (SEI): Elimination of a key manufacturer of guidance systems and radars.
- Jey Industrial Zone (Esfahan): Destruction of IRGC drone assembly plants.
Leadership Elimination: Confirmed deaths of two high-ranking intelligence officers of Khatam ol Anbia: Abdollah Jalali Nassab and Amir Shariat.
Kharg Island: CENTCOM destroyed the airport, the air defense complex, and missile stockpiles. The strike aimed to paralyze Iran’s ability to close Hormuz using mines.

2. Iranian and Proxy Response

Attacks on Israel: 7 rocket salvos (March 12–14). Cluster munitions fell in Rishon LeZion and Eilat (3 wounded). Total since start of war: 2,000 missiles/drones.
Attacks on Gulf Countries (March 13):
- Saudi Arabia: 51 drones intercepted.
- UAE: 33 drones and 9 ballistic missiles intercepted. Strike on Fujairah port.
- Oman: One drone struck the al-Ain industrial complex in Sohar (2 killed).
- Bahrain/Dubai: Drone attacks on Citibank buildings (retaliation for the strike on Bank Sepah).
Iraq: Militias (Kataib Hezbollah) attacked Harir base, K1, and the US Embassy in Baghdad (damaging SAT-COMM systems).

STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND ENERGY

1. Shipping Status (UKMTO Data)

Normal traffic (~138 ships/day) has been reduced to 2 ships/day. 20 maritime incidents have been recorded since March 1. Selective Passage: Iran only permits the movement of:

Indian (LPG) and Turkish vessels.
Supertankers bound for China (e.g., an Iranian supertanker observed on March 15).

2. Commodity Prices

Commodity	Before War	March 13	March 16	Change
Brent Crude	$70	$103	$105	+50%
TTF Gas	€31	€50	€60	+93%

LNG: The strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan (March 2) knocked out 19% of global LNG supply. Gas storage levels in Europe have fallen below 31%.

HUMANITARIAN AND INTERNAL SITUATION

1. Casualty Count (Hengaw / UNHCR)

Iran: 4,900 killed (4,420 military/security, 480 civilians). Attacks reported in 177 cities across 25 provinces.
Lebanon: 850 killed (including 106 children). 1 million displaced (14% of the population).
Critical Incidents: Death of 168 children at a school in Minab (Feb 28) – official US admission of a probable targeting error.

2. Internal Situation in Iran

Authority: Mojtaba Khamenei expressed concern over “explosive social anger” but remains committed to continuing the war.
Opposition: On March 14 in Tehran (Chitgar district), protesters were heard chanting “Long live the Shah.”
Repression: Internet blackout has lasted 14 days. Hundreds arrested, 54 Starlink devices confiscated in Hormozgan province.

IMPACT ON POLAND (ING Bank Śląski Report)

Direct transmission of the war to the Polish economy (data as of March 12):

Fuel Prices: Increased by 15% in the first half of March.
CPI Inflation:
- Direct impact: approximately +0.8 percentage points to the March reading.
- March Forecast: Breaking the 3% YoY barrier.
- Annual Revision: ING raised its average 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% (up from 2%).
MPC (RPP): No room for interest rate cuts due to the risk of second-round effects.

CERTAINTY AND RISK MATRIX

1. Information Certainty

Hard Facts: Number of CENTCOM strikes, drop in Hormuz traffic (AIS/UKMTO), exchange-traded prices.
Disputed Claims: Effectiveness of Iranian air defenses (Tehran claims to intercept most missiles). Trump denies US equipment losses, labeling such reports “treason.”
Unknowns: The actual state of Iran’s missile stockpiles after 14 days and the scale of desertion within the IRGC.

2. Official Stances of Global Powers

USA: Trump rejects mediation by Oman/Egypt; warns NATO of a “bad future” if they fail to help in Hormuz.
France: Proposes a 4-stage peace pact (Lebanese recognition of Israel, LAF redeployment).
Japan / Australia: Official refusal to send warships to the escort coalition.

RISK MATRIX (Upcoming Days)

S3 (Ground Invasion): Time horizon of approximately 7 days. Monitor IDF unit movements toward the Litani River.
Oil Infrastructure: Trump warned that after Kharg Island, Iran’s export infrastructure could be the next target (risk of oil spike to $110-150).
Regime Stability: Expansion of checkpoints and triple LEC patrols in Tehran suggest fear of an internal uprising.

Bibliography

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