New Rules, War in Iran, and PKP Cargo Restructuring Reshape Transport Landscape

The key recent event was the European Commission’s decision^[4] of March 16, 2026, to adopt new ‘Land and Multimodal Transport Guidelines’ and the Transport Block Exemption Regulation (TBER). For the first time since 2008, this changes the framework for public support for land transport in the European Union. Starting March 30, 2026, member states will gain simpler tools to finance discounts on access charges for rail and inland waterway infrastructure, purchase low-emission rolling stock, and build intermodal terminals. TBER will be in force until December 31, 2034, while the guidelines have no set expiration date. For Poland, this means greater opportunities to support entities such as PKP Cargo, PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe, and terminal operators, but also increased risks of EU audits on the effective use of funds.

EU Support for Rail and Multimodal Transport

At the same time, the war involving Iran caused serious disruptions^[1] on key maritime routes. CMA CGM announced between March 17–20, 2026, the launch of emergency multimodal (sea–rail–road) solutions bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Containers and liquid cargoes are now directed to the ports of Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Sohar, and Jeddah, from where they are distributed to markets in the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil and LNG trade, so diverting some traffic increases transit times and freight costs, impacting European refineries and chemical importers alike. For Polish recipients, this poses risks of delays and price hikes in supply chains for petroleum products and containers from the Persian Gulf region.

Hormuz, Jones Act, and Emergency Corridors

The fuel market situation also prompted a response from the administration of President Donald Trump. The US authorities announced a 60-day suspension of Jones Act requirements^[7] for transporting oil, gas, fertilizers, and coal between US ports. Temporary permission was given to use foreign-flagged vessels to transport up to 172 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves (SPR). Normally, the Jones Act requires coastal shipping vessels to be built in the USA, US-owned, US-flagged, and staffed with at least 75% American citizens. The exemption may temporarily increase demand for tankers on the global market and raise rates in the Atlantic, indirectly affecting the cost of energy imports to Europe.

PKP Cargo Restructuring and New Investments

In Poland, a crucial event was PKP Cargo S. A. in restructuring receiving on March 18, 2026, the court commissioner’s approval of the restructuring plan submitted in June 2025. The document covers the arrangement of approximately 2.94 billion PLN in liabilities by 2031, which is intended to enable the continuation of transport operations rather than bankruptcy^[3]. Two days earlier, on March 16, 2026, the District Court in Warsaw suspended proceedings in the so-called “coal case,” in which the company seeks compensation from the State Treasury for administrative decisions concerning the coal market. is represented by the Legal Office of the Republic of Poland in court. For clients in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Ukraine, this means greater predictability regarding the availability of freight slots and intermodal services, although the company will continue to move away from traditional coal transport towards higher-margin cargo.

Tensions in Passenger and Air Transport

At the regional infrastructure level, a package of decisions regarding ports and multimodal corridors is also important. The European Investment Bank launched another tranche of EUR 73 million^[5] from a EUR 250 million loan for building the second rail line Divača–Koper in Slovenia, with construction starting in 2026 and completion expected in 2030. At the same time, expansion to four lanes is underway for an approximately 1.6 km key road section to the port of Koper, valued at EUR 24 million. The port already delivers over 50% of cargo by rail and serves as an alternative gateway for goods to Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, compared to northern ports. In Turkey, the DP World group opened a 20,000 m² 3PL warehouse in Balçık, Kocaeli Province, with 26 loading docks and about 70 employees, announcing plans to increase warehouse capacity in Eastern Europe to 15,000 m² by 2028. This strengthens Turkey’s role as a hub on Eurasian corridors linking Asia, the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Europe.

Weaker Regulatory and Market Signals

Tensions are also rising in passenger and air transport. On March 18, 2026, a full-day warning strike by the ver.di union paralyzed Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER)^[2] and caused the cancellation of all 445 scheduled departures and arrivals, affecting about 57,000 passengers, including travelers from Poland. The pay dispute, in which unions are demanding around 6% increases compared to the employer’s offer of 1–1.5% annual raises, reveals the vulnerability of Europe’s air network to local conflicts. Meanwhile, in the US there is growing pressure on air cargo due to staffing constraints in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) as well as harsh weather conditions. The sector, represented among others by the Airforwarders Association, warns of growing bottlenecks and the possibility of shifting some volumes from air to sea or combined sea-air transport, which could impact deliveries of high-value components to Europe and Poland.

Weaker but significant signals also appear on the horizon. The Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE) of the European Commission published on March 19, 2026, the 2026 management plan highlighting priorities in implementing new laws, safety, and transport decarbonization. The World Trade Organization (WTO) warns that the Middle East conflict further weakens the already faltering global trade momentum, while a group of countries—Bahrain, Japan, Panama, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, and the USA—calls for creating a ‘safe maritime corridor’ through Hormuz. In the logistics market, OIA Global is acquiring the New Zealand company About Freight Worldwide, boosting multimodal offerings on Asia-Pacific routes, and Port Everglades in Florida reports a record 1.16 million TEU handled in 2026^[10]. For Poland, these developments mean simultaneous tightening of pro-rail EU rules and accelerated shifts on global routes that in coming months will influence transport service prices and availability.

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