Conflict Iran–Israel–USA: Full Situation Analysis

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated air-sea campaign against Iran — the largest US military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the first strike, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. Iran responded with massive missile and drone attacks on Israel, US bases in six Gulf states, and the region’s energy infrastructure, effectively paralyzing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Hezbollah opened a second front in Lebanon. By March 6, at least 1,230 people had died in Iran (officially; independent sources cite much higher numbers), 6 American soldiers, over 30 people in Lebanon, and 11 in Israel. The conflict triggered a global energy shock — Brent crude rose by over 23% in a week to ~$85/bbl.

As of: March 6, 2026, 9:00 AM CET | Day 7 of the war

Timeline

Day 7 — March 6 (Today)

• Brent: The price of a barrel of oil is approximately 85.17 USD (+23.36% m/m).

• Correction: The first drop of 1.0% was recorded after six sessions of gains.

• Waiver for India: The US granted India a 30-day waiver for purchasing Russian oil loaded before March 5 to stabilize the market.

• Status: The conflict continues without signals of a ceasefire.

Day 6 — March 5

• Attack on Qatar and UAE: Iran carried out its largest massive attack on Qatar (a 1.5-hour bombardment) and the United Arab Emirates.

• Defense Readiness: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared readiness to repel a potential US ground invasion.

• Sinking of a Vessel: A US submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean.

• Succession: Reports of the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the successor to the leader.

• Scale of Shelling: 11 countries hit by Iranian drones and missiles.

Day 5 — March 4

• Strike on Tehran: IDF attacked the IRGC headquarters and internal units in southeast Tehran.

• Force Degradation: CENTCOM reports an 86% reduction in Iranian ballistic missile launches compared to February 28.

• Maritime Losses: Destruction of 17 Iranian naval units and approx. 2,000 military targets confirmed.

• Lebanon: Clashes between IDF and Hezbollah in Khiam and Ed-Dhajra; the Lebanese cabinet declares Hezbollah’s activities illegal.

Day 4 — March 3

• Natanz: IAEA confirms damage to the entrances of the FEP plant, but without radiological consequences.

• Succession: The Assembly of Experts deliberates on the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei.

• Ground Operation: Israeli ground forces enter southern Lebanon.

• USA: The Senate rejects the War Powers resolution (47:53).

Day 3 — March 2

• US Losses: 6 US soldiers die in a drone attack in Kuwait.

• Regional Escalation: Iran attacks all 6 GCC countries; drones hit the US embassy in Riyadh.

• Hezbollah: Official entry into the war and shelling of a base near Haifa.

• Beirut: Israeli airstrikes on the Lebanese capital; 31 killed.

• Economy: Supertanker freight rates increase by 94%.

Day 2 — March 1

• Navigation Paralysis: Traffic in the TSS Hormuz channels halted; activity fell by 40–50%.

• Blockade by Carriers: Maersk, MSC, and others suspend bookings.

• Retaliation: Iran begins a massive shelling of Israel and US bases.

Day 1 — February 28, 2026

• Operations: Start of “Roaring Lion” and “Epic Fury”.

• Death of the Leader: Ali Khamenei dies in an attack on Tehran.

• Minab Tragedy: Airstrike on a girls’ school — 165–186 students killed.

• Sea: IRGC announces the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Prelude: June 2025 — February 2026

• June 2025: 12-day air campaign against nuclear facilities.

• Winter 2025/26: Bloody suppression of protests in Iran — over 6,126 killed.

• February 2026: Trump’s ultimatum and failure of talks in Geneva.

Certainty Matrix

Hard Facts (Confirmed)

Disputed Claims

• Nuclear Destruction: Trump claims targets were destroyed; IAEA reports damage to entrances but no evidence of hits on main installations.

• Kurdish Operation: Reports of arming Kurds by the CIA are denied by ISW and Iraqi Kurdistan authorities.

• Casualty Figures: Discrepancies between government (1,230) and independent (1,500+) data result from the blackout.

• War Justification: Change in US narrative from “direct threat” to strategic objectives.

Official Government Positions

USA (Trump Administration)

• Strategic Objectives: Destroying Iran’s missile and naval potential, preventing the acquisition of nuclear weapons, cutting off funding for terrorism.

• Approach: Trump states that “the war is more important than gas prices” and predicts its conclusion in 4–5 weeks.

Israel

• Officially: “Self-defense” against an existential threat.

• Concurrently: Ground operation in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah since March 3.

Iran

• Rhetoric: “Unprovoked aggression” and refusal to negotiate.

• Actions: Retaliation against 11 countries and the blockade of Hormuz as a “legal defense”.

Russia and China

• Russia: Condemnation of “aggression” and warning against nuclear proliferation.

• China: Demand for the cessation of attacks; 35% of their oil comes from the region.

Economic Dimension — Oil and Gas

Chronology of Brent Crude Prices (USD/bbl)

Market Scenarios

• Up to 2 weeks of blockade: Oil 80–90 USD; inflation in Europe +0.3 p.p..

• 1–3 months: Oil 90–110 USD; risk of stagflation in Asia.

• Over 3 months: Oil 110–130+ USD; global recession.

Social and Humanitarian Dimension

• Refugees: Over 300,000 displaced (UNHCR); 80,000 fled Lebanon.

• Minab: 165–186 girls (ages 7–12) killed.

• Protests: Global polarization — riots in Pakistan (23 dead) vs. record diaspora marches (Munich, LA, Toronto) calling for the overthrow of the regime.

Full List of Sources

[^1]: [1] Konflikt Iran–Izrael–USA: Pełna analiza sytuacji (stan na 6 marca 2026 r.) – attached document PDF/MD.

[^2]: [2] Assassination of Ali Khamenei – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Ali_Khamenei

[^3]: [3] White House confirms death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – NPR: https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5436832/white-house-confirms-death-of-irans-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei

[^4]: [4] Live updates: Iran attacks Israel and US bases as war intensifies – FOX: https://www.livenowfox.com/news/iran-war-continues-strikes-israel-us-march-5-2026

[^5]: [5] Oil tanker traffic disrupted in Strait of Hormuz main shipping lanes – S&P Global: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/030126-oil-tanker-traffic-halts-in-strait-of-hormuz-amid-gulf-strikes-cas

[^6]: [6] Iran Crisis: Strait of Hormuz Closure and Commercial Shipping Risk – Castor Vali: https://www.castorvali.com/news/iran-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-crisis-2026/

[^7]: [7] At least 1,500 killed on third day of war, including 200 civilians – Hengaw: https://hengaw.net/en/reports-and-statistics-1/2026/03/article-2

[^8]: [8] Brent crude oil – Price – Chart – Historical Data – Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

[^9]: [9] 2026 Hezbollah–Israel strikes – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_strikes

[^10]: [10] Israel strikes Hezbollah in Lebanon after Iran-allied group launches missiles – The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/israel-idf-strikes-hezbollah-beirut-lebanon-iran-war

[^11]: [11] Israel kills 31 in Beirut strike following Hezbollah rocket attack – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/israel-bombs-beirut-after-hezbollah-launches-rocket-attack

[^12]: [12] Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites – CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

[^13]: [13] Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild? – CSIS: https://www.csis.org/analysis/damage-irans-nuclear-program-can-it-rebuild

[^14]: [14] At least 6,126 people killed in Iran’s crackdown – NPR: https://www.npr.org/2026/01/27/nx-s1-5689793/6-126-iran-crackdown-protests-death-toll

[^15]: [15] At least 3,117 people killed during Iran protests – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/21/at-least-3117-people-killed-during-iran-protests-state-media-reports

[^16]: [16] WRMC Statement on the Humanitarian Crisis in Iran: https://wrmcouncil.org/news/statement/world-refugee-migration-council-statement-on-the-humanitarian-and-democratic-crisis-in-iran/

[^17]: [17] What happened at the protests in Iran? – Amnesty International: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2026/01/what-happened-at-the-protests-in-iran/

[^18]: [18] Iranian regime pressures families of slain protesters – CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/26/middleeast/iran-protesters-crackdown-pressure-intl

[^19]: [19] 2026 Iranian diaspora protests – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_diaspora_protests

[^20]: [20] UN BRAWL! Russia and China Unite To Counter US Threats To Iran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jA4EBRe7p8

[^21]: [21] China and Russia Stand United Against U.S. Intervention – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDXaWVwaymc

[^22]: [22] Washington pushing Middle East to WAR – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj4Ku2F8DYY

[^23]: [23] US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-preparing-potentially-weeks-long-iran-operations-2026-02-13/

[^24]: [24] Tracking the rapid US military build-up near Iran – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/20/tracking-the-rapid-us-military-build-up-near-iran

[^25]: [25] 2026 United States military buildup in the Middle East – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Middle_East

[^26]: [26] Israel, US bomb Iran: A timeline of threats – Dawn: https://www.dawn.com/news/1977402

[^27]: [27] US, Israel bomb Iran: A timeline of talks and threats – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-israel-bomb-iran-a-timeline-of-talks-and-threats-leading-up-to-attacks

[^28]: [28] 2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli%E2%80%93United_States_strikes_on_Iran

[^29]: [29] 2026 Iran war – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war

[^30]: [30] U.S. Central Command | Operation Epic Fury: https://www.centcom.mil/OPERATIONS-AND-EXERCISES/EPIC-FURY/

[^31]: [31] Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in strike – Fox 13: https://www.fox13news.com/news/irans-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-killed-strike-report

[^32]: [32] Iranian state media confirms Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead – Axios: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-killed-israel

[^33]: [33] 2026 Minab school airstrike – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_airstrike

[^34]: [34] Israel strikes two schools in Iran – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/israel-strikes-two-schools-in-iran-killing-more-than-50-people

[^35]: [35] Death toll from Iran school bombing rises – The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/01/iran-school-bombing-death-toll-us-israel-strikes

[^36]: [36] Photos: Iran mourns 165 people killed in school strike – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/3/iran-mourns-165-schoolgirls-and-staff-killed-in-school-strike

[^37]: [37] At least three US service members killed – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/at-least-three-us-service-members-killed-during-iran-operation-centcom

[^38]: [38] Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 4, 2026 – ISW: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-4-2026/

[^39]: [39] U.S. Military Death Toll Rises to 6 – NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/world/middleeast/us-military-death-toll-iran.html

[^40]: [40] U.S. Releases Names of Soldiers Killed in War With Iran – NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/us/politics/us-soldiers-killed-iran.html

[^41]: [41] Six US service members killed in Iranian strike in Kuwait – CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/politics/six-soldiers-killed-in-iranian-strike-kuwait

[^42]: [42] Iran war live: drones hit US embassy in Riyadh – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-live-israel-strikes-hezbollah-uk-base-hit-cyprus-conflict-widens-2026-03-02/

[^43]: [43] Blasts shake Qatar, UAE, Kuwait as Iran’s strikes continue – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/blasts-shake-qatar-uae-kuwait-as-irans-retaliatory-strikes-continue

[^44]: [44] Israel intensifies war on Lebanon after Hezbollah attack – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/2/israel-intensifies-war-on-lebanon-after-hezbollah-attack

[^45]: [45] Iran’s Second Front: Assessing the Kurdish Incursions – Special Eurasia: https://www.specialeurasia.com/2026/03/05/iran-kurdish-incursion/

[^46]: [46] Iraq’s Kurdish Fighters Launch Ground Operation? – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGTIaFZVf34

[^47]: [47] Iran ‘Crushes All US-Backed Iraqi Kurdish Units’ – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7Wnx_j_kV4

[^48]: [48] BREAKING: Kurdish Fighters Enter Iran – CIA Arms EXPOSED – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A09vJfMadwY

[^49]: [49] Oil supertanker rates hit all-time high – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/middle-east-crisis-iran-us-shipping-oil-tankers-strait-of-hormuz.html

[^50]: [50] Russia, China Step Into US–Iran War at UN – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtYCRXiI2OE

[^51]: [51] Russia, China raise diplomatic voices against US-Israeli attacks – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/russia-china-raise-diplomatic-voices-against-us-israeli-attacks-on-iran

[^52]: [52] IAEA confirms buildings damaged at Iran’s Natanz – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/iaea-confirms-some-damage-to-irans-natanz-nuclear-facility

[^53]: [53] Iran’s Assembly of Experts Considers Mojtaba Khamenei – Chosun Ilbo: https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en/2026/03/04/S4EOS4LXLNB7BHIXX3RVMXOABU/

[^54]: [54] What is Iran’s Assembly of Experts? – Euronews: https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/03/what-is-irans-assembly-of-experts-and-who-will-succeed-khamenei

[^55]: [55] 2026 Iranian Supreme Leader election – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_Supreme_Leader_election

[^56]: [56] Split Senate votes against measure to constrain Trump – NPR: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/04/nx-s1-5735867/war-powers-congress-iran

[^57]: [57] Iran war live updates: Tehran keeps up strikes – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/us-iran-war-live-updates.html

[^58]: [58] Israel prepares a ground invasion in Lebanon – ACLED: https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/israel-prepares-ground-invasion-lebanon-hezbollah-formally-joins-war

[^59]: [59] Iran fires biggest barrage on Qatar, targets UAE – Euronews: https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/05/iran-claims-it-hit-us-tanker-as-israel-launches-fresh-strikes-on-tehran

[^60]: [60] Iran’s foreign minister on possible ground invasion – NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/video/iranian-foreign-minister-says-iran-is-ready-for-a-possible-u-s-ground-invasion-258765893849

[^61]: [61] Iran is ‘confident’ it could counter ground invasion – NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-foreign-minister-interview-rcna261920

[^62]: [62] UPDATE: Mojtaba emerged as successor – Facebook/Business Standard: https://www.facebook.com/ismaeel489/posts/update-iran-international-claims-that-the-assembly-of-experts-on-/25224551773886769/

[^63]: [63] Iran war expands: 11 countries now hit – YouTube/ABC News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHa6SN41qHY

[^64]: [64] 2026 Iran massacres – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres

[^65]: [65] How the Iran Conflict Threatens Europe’s Energy – Modern Diplomacy: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/03/02/how-the-iran-conflict-threatens-europes-energy-security-and-growth/

[^66]: [66] How will the Iran conflict hit European energy? – Bruegel: https://www.bruegel.org/first-glance/how-will-iran-conflict-hit-european-energy-markets

[^67]: [67] Trump administration’s objectives in Iran – NPR: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/02/nx-s1-5732783/the-trump-administrations-objectives-for-the-mission-in-iran

[^68]: [68] 2026 Iranian strikes on the Kurdistan Region – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_strikes_on_the_Kurdistan_Region

[^69]: [69] Will the US put ‘boots on the ground’ in Iran? – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/4/will-the-us-put-boots-on-the-ground-in-iran

[^70]: [70] Trump offers shifting narrative for U.S. war in Iran – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/trump-iran-shifting-narrative-us-war.html

[^71]: [71] Trump’s 4 objectives in Iran explained – Gulf News: https://gulfnews.com/amp/story/world%2Fmena%2Ftrumps-4-objectives-in-iran-explained-1.500461406

[^72]: [72] Trump sets out four clear objectives – Times of India: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/last-best-chance-trump-sets-out-four-clear-objectives-for-ending-iran-war-what-are-they/articleshow/128954013.cms

[^73]: [73] Trump Won’t Rule Out Ground Troops – Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-03-02/trump-floats-us-ground-troops-in-iran-evening-briefing-americas

[^74]: [74] U.S. won’t rule out sending ground troops – Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/02/hegseth-iran-ground-troops/

[^75]: [75] Ground troops ‘not part of the plan’ – Anadolu: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ground-troops-not-part-of-the-plan-in-iran-operation-white-house-/3850390

[^76]: [76] Will There Be a Ground Invasion of Iran? – Iran War Updates: https://iranwarupdates.com/articles/will-us-ground-invasion-iran

[^77]: [77] Congress to launch war powers debate – Globe and Mail: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-politics/article-us-iran-conflict-congress-war-powers-debate/

[^78]: [78] Netanyahu says war not going to take years – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-us-israel-war-iran-not-going-take-years-2026-03-03/

[^79]: [79] Dire Strait – Strait of Hormuz Update – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xUALzztelM

[^80]: [80] Iran war: Markets bet on brief conflict – CNA: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/iran-war-usa-israel-markets-oil-strait-hormuz-analysts-5970171

[^81]: [81] Iranian Revolution 2026: Intelligence Briefing – CyberWarzone: https://cyberwarzone.com/2026/03/03/iranian-revolution-2026-complete-intelligence-briefing-protests-war-cyber-operations-and-the-fall-of-khamenei/

[^82]: [82] In 2026, a Growing Risk of Nuclear Proliferation – Just Security: https://www.justsecurity.org/129480/risk-nuclear-proliferation-2026/

[^83]: [83] U.S.-Saudi Deal Said to Loosen Nonproliferation Vows – Arms Control: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-03/news/us-saudi-deal-said-loosen-nonproliferation-vows

[^84]: [84] Saudi Arabia may enrich uranium under proposed US deal – AP: https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-us-nuclear-enrichment-bomb-proliferation-18cb979f0abf5f0d81c1c91f45d6a6ef

[^85]: [85] Crude Oil Price Today (5th Mar, 2026) – Goodreturns: https://www.goodreturns.in/crude-oil-price.html

[^86]: [86] Global energy costs soar as Iran crisis disrupts shipping – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-energy-costs-soar-iran-crisis-disrupts-shipping-oil-gas-production-2026-03-03/

[^87]: [87] Gas prices nearly double as Europe braces – Euronews: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/03/gas-prices-nearly-double-as-europe-braces-for-iran-war-energy-shocks

[^88]: [88] Oil prices rise more than 2% as US, Iran extend talks – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/oil-prices-edge-lower-after-us-iran-extend-talks-2026-02-27/

[^89]: [89] U.S. crude oil set to top $70 on fears of Iran disruption – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/crude-oil-futures-iran.html

[^90]: [90] Oil soars amid Strait of Hormuz shipping fears – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/iran-us-oil-strait-hormuz-war-middle-east-energy-brent-crude-wti-conflict.html

[^91]: [91] Oil prices rise sharply after attacks on Iran – Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/oil-prices-rise-sharply-after-us-israeli-attacks-on-iran

[^92]: [92] Oil prices jump nearly 5%, settle at highest since 2025 – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-expanding-us-israeli-conflict-with-iran-elevates-supply-risks-2026-03-03/

[^93]: [93] Trump says U.S. to offer insurance for Gulf shipping – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/us-iran-war-live-updates.html

[^94]: [94] Oil prices up 1% as Iran crisis disrupts supply – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/oil-prices-up-1percent-as-iran-crisis-disrupts-middle-east-supply.html

[^95]: [95] UBS raises average Brent price forecasts for 2026 – Investing: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/ubs-raises-average-brent-price-forecasts-for-first-quarter-full-year-2026-4540835

[^96]: [96] Oil Prices Surge on Iran Conflict – Canadian Mining Report: https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/oil-prices-surge-on-iran-conflict-how-high-could-crude-go

[^97]: [97] Oil rises on supply concerns as conflict widens – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/oil-rises-on-supply-concerns-as-iran-conflict-widens.html

[^98]: [98] U.S. offers India a 30-day waiver for Russian oil – CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/us-india-waiver-russian-oil-iran-war-energy-supply-worries-.html

[^99]: [99] Oil prices drop as US offers India waiver for Russia – The National: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2026/03/06/oil-prices-drop-as-us-offers-india-temporary-waiver-to-buy-from-russia-amid-iran-war/

[^100]: [100] Iran war briefing: US lets India buy Russian oil – The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/06/iran-war-us-india-russian-oil-prices-jump-israel-strikes-hezbollah-news-updates

[^101]: [101] Asia FX Talk – Caution with Iran conflict – MUFG: https://www.mufgresearch.com/fx/asia-fx-talk-markets-remain-cautious-with-iran-conflict-and-nfp-6-march-2026/

[^102]: [102] Asia Shares Mixed as Oil Edges Lower – US News: https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2026-03-06/asia-shares-are-mixed-following-wall-streets-losses-as-oil-edges-lower

[^103]: [103] Oil Prices Surge 3.7% as Standoff Triggers Higher Forecasts – OilPrice: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Surge-3-as-US-Iran-Standoff-Triggers-Higher-2026-Forecasts.html

[^104]: [104] Goldman projects lower oil prices in 2026 – WHTC: https://whtc.com/2026/01/11/goldman-projects-lower-oil-prices-in-2026-as-supply-swells/

[^105]: [105] UNHCR Middle East Emergency Flash Update #1 – ReliefWeb: https://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/unhcr-middle-east-situation-emergency-flash-update-1-5-march-2026

[^106]: [106] UNHCR mobilizing as Middle East crisis escalates: https://www.unhcr.ca/news/unhcr-mobilizing-across-region-as-middle-east-crisis-escalates/

[^107]: [107] Pro-Iranian protests during strikes – Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro-Iranian_protests_during_the_2026_Israeli%E2%80%93United_States_strikes_on_Iran

[^108]: [108] Protests Around the World Over War in Iran – YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izLHOPZ39XQ

[^109]: [109] Congress split as Senate nears vote on Iran – NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/us/politics/congress-iran-war-powers.html