Logistics Returns to Play, Capital Flows into the Living Sector. Weekly Global Real Estate Snapshot

According to the latest update “EMEA Living Market Perspectives 2026” prepared by JLL, investments in European living sectors—including multifamily buildings, PRS, student housing (PBSA), and senior housing – increased in 2025^[1] by 22% to EUR 62.2 billion, and in 2026 are expected to exceed EUR 70 billion^[3]. Simultaneously, an analysis by INREV on institutional investors’ strategies in European PRS shows that this segment is becoming^[2] a key part of pension and housing policies. In 2025, the largest single living transactions valued at least EUR 500 million totaled around EUR 14.2 billion, with roughly EUR 17 billion of capital coming from the United States. The 2026 pipeline includes portfolios of Brookfield and Blackstone in PRS, PBSA, and senior housing. For Poland, this indicates a potential inflow of long-term pension capital into rental housing^[4], provided that regulations on rents and taxation remain stable.

Institutional Capital Chooses the Living Sector

The strong shift of capital toward living coincides with changes in the European office market. The report “European Office Market: Demand for High-Quality Space Reaches Record Levels” by Cushman & Wakefield shows that in 2025 the total volume of office leases in Europe reached^[5] 10.5 million m², with 67% located in central business districts. A record 52% of leased space was Class A offices, with an average vacancy rate of 3.5%. Meanwhile, only about 10.1 million m² of offices are under construction—the lowest since 2016—which means new supply in 2026–2027 will amount to merely^[6] about 0.6% of existing stock annually, half the long-term average. Office investments reached EUR 52 billion,^[7] growing by 14% year-on-year. The polarization between prime buildings and older properties requires increasing CAPEX^[23] for renovations, especially regarding ESG requirements and energy efficiency.

Offices: Polarization of Quality and Initial Moves on Value-Add Assets

On the US office market, value-add investor activity is visible. In Clearwater, Florida, European Equities Acquisition purchased from a public entity^[8] the Clearwater Housing Authority office building Corporate Square with an area of 68,936 sq. ft. (approx. 6,400 m²) for USD 5.3 million. The 1987 building, with 5 floors and 258 parking spaces, was only 42.9% occupied^[9]. The transaction illustrates rising willingness among local players^[10] to acquire properties with high vacancy rates and reposition them through modernization and tenant restructuring. Such valuations may become reference points for the sale of Class B/C offices by public entities in Europe as well.

Logistics as the Main Winner of Global Capital

Logistics remains the strongest magnet for global capital. The EQT Real Estate Industrial Value Fund VI, managed by EQT Real Estate, announced on March 23, 2026, the acquisition of a portfolio of 9 industrial-warehouse properties^[11] in southern New Jersey totaling about 2 million sq. ft. (around 185,000 m²). Class A properties located in an industrial park near the I-295 highway offer, among others, 134 loading docks^[12] and clear heights of 24–33 feet, with over 130 million consumers reachable within one day of transport. A few weeks earlier, the same fund acquired from Mapletree Investments a portfolio of 25 logistics facilities^[26] in the US covering 4.3 million sq. ft. in key hubs like Jacksonville, Nashville, Atlanta, and the New York area. Prices for both deals were not disclosed. In Europe, according to a BNP Paribas Real Estate report, nearly EUR 45 billion was invested in 2025^[14], while leasing volume in six major markets reached 19.4 million m²^[24] (+3% year-on-year). Average logistics rents rose by 4.5%^[25], most sharply where supply is minimal. Large portfolios were acquired by, among others, London. Metric, Tritax Big Box, and Segro, conducting transactions worth EUR 1.2–1.4 billion.

USA: More Expensive Mortgages and Rising Distress Assets

On the financing front in the US, the cost of mortgage credit is rising^[15]. According to CNBC, the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage reached about 6.53% on March 20, 2026^[16], the highest since September 2025, reacting to rising treasury yields and geopolitical tensions related to the conflict with Iran. Mortgage. Reports platform forecasts indicate that rates will stay^[17] in the range of “low to mid 6%” in March, while US Bank analysts expect two Fed rate cuts^[18] in 2026, with the current federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75%. Higher mortgage debt costs cool household purchase activity and increase pressure on the rental segment, while simultaneously forcing higher spreads between cap rates and financing costs in commercial real estate.

EPBD Forces Costly Renovations in the EU and Consequences for Poland

Amid market changes, regulatory pressure is mounting in the European Union^[19]. The revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive EPBD (EU/2024/1275), outlined by the European Commission, has been in force since May 28, 2024^[20], and member states must transpose it into national law^[21] by May 29, 2026. The goal is to fully decarbonize the EU building stock by 2050; all new buildings must be zero-emission by 2030, and public buildings already by 2028. At least 16% of the worst-performing non-residential renovated to 26% by 2033, according to national minimum efficiency standards. Analysis by the Odyssee-Mure platform estimates savings of about^[22] 2.6 Mtoe annually in the public buildings sector by 2030. For office, warehouse, and retail property owners, this means an urgent need to accelerate energy renovations, and for Poland—a need to adapt construction, planning, and tax regulations to the new requirements, which will impact the profitability of projects started after 2026.

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